Xi's Washington Visit Opens Under a B-2 Flyover as Oil Markets Can't Agree Which Way Crude Is Moving

Xi Jinping landed at Joint Base Andrews today for his first state visit to Washington in eleven years, and the welcome came with hardware most foreign leaders never see. According to a Council on Foreign Relations brief, a B-2 Spirit and four F-22 Raptors overflew the arrival ceremony, Trump personally waited on the tarmac, and Melania Trump is hosting Chinese first lady Peng Liyuan separately. CFR notes none of that happened when Trump visited Beijing in May.

The pageantry gap matters because CFR argues it reflects a real power gap, not just protocol. The analysis states plainly that Beijing believes it has already tamed the Trump administration through rare-earth export controls, and that the administration itself "at times seems to believe it too." CFR points to the October 2025 "Busan deal," where Washington cut tariffs in response to Beijing's leverage rather than deploying tools it had ready, including sanctions on smaller Chinese banks.

CFR's brief lists specific actions it says Beijing has taken since that deal: new State Council directives that CFR says effectively criminalize firms moving production out of China, continued throttling of rare-earth supplies despite the Busan agreement, detention of U.S. citizens, and unconfirmed reports that China provided satellite imagery used in an Iranian strike that killed Americans. That last claim is an allegation reported by CFR, not a proven fact, and no charges or official U.S. government finding has been cited establishing it. On the U.S. side, CFR lists de facto bans on Chinese drones and robots, an advisory accusing Chinese firms of distilling American AI models, and a new law authorizing tariffs up to 100% on top Chinese goods.

Iran's Shadow Over the Summit

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian addresses the UN General Assembly today, and his speech is drawing outsized market attention because China buys more than 80% of Iran's seaborne oil exports, according to commodities firm Kpler, cited by OilPrice.com. Iran itself accounts for barely 1% of China's total trade, but Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has met his Iranian counterpart four times in three months, most recently September 16 in Beijing, where Wang called for reopening the Strait of Hormuz without offering a concrete plan, OilPrice.com reported.

Elizabeth Freund Larus of the Pacific Forum told RFE/RL that "China isn't going to do the heavy lifting" to restart U.S.-Iran talks, noting Beijing benefits from a conflict that's straining U.S. military resources even as it drives up China's own energy costs. The Congressional Budget Office puts the Iran war's cost to the Pentagon above $38 billion through August 1, and the U.S. currently has no deployed aircraft carrier in the Western Pacific for the first time since World War II, according to OilPrice.com's reporting.

Where sources actually disagree is on which direction oil is moving today. ZeroHedge reported crude reversing losses and Brent pushing back over $100 a barrel with 10-year yields hitting 4.99% ahead of Pezeshkian's speech. Blockonomi, by contrast, reported crude extending a decline on optimism from U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks, framing the mood as calmer heading into the summit. Traders Union split the difference, pricing Brent near $97.56, up 2.43% on the day, with its own technical model flagging a 55% probability of further near-term declines. These are same-day, conflicting reads on the same commodity, and no single number can be called the confirmed figure.

What's Actually on the Table

The Hindu reports the tariff truce between Washington and Beijing expires November 10, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been meeting Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to extend it, with U.S. officials signaling upcoming announcements will focus on agriculture and non-tariff barriers rather than a full resolution. Rare earths remain the central lever: China controls up to 70% of global mining and 85% of refining capacity, per The Hindu, which is why Trump has taken what The Hindu calls a less combative posture heading into the meeting.

Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund told The Guardian that "expectations are very low" for the summit and that "nobody is using the term deliverables." The one area both sides may actually align on is AI safety. Bessent has proposed a joint AI safety notification mechanism, and Thursday's White House state dinner is expected to draw Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Sundar Pichai, Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook, and Jensen Huang, according to Blockonomi and The Guardian.

The Guardian raises a genuine concern: that Trump's warmer posture toward Xi, including a planned hug at arrival, risks signaling flexibility on Taiwan that Asian allies fear could be traded away for economic wins. Trump's own public position cuts against that read. He has said "we're leading China in AI, and frankly, I want to keep it that way, because whoever wins AI, wins," a stance that suggests economic leverage, not concession, is his stated goal. Whether that translates into an actual Taiwan commitment, or into rare-earth relief before the November 10 truce deadline, is still unresolved and won't be clear until the summit's closing statements.