Trump Says He Backs a Diesel Export Ban as Price Hits Record $6.53 a Gallon, Oil-State Republicans Call It a Gimmick

Since diesel prices first blew past $6 a gallon nationally in early September, the average has kept climbing, hitting a record $6.53 on Tuesday, September 22, according to AAA data cited by The Guardian and Grist. That's up roughly 75 to 80 percent from a year ago, and it's now pulled President Trump directly into a fight his own party can't agree on.

Speaking to reporters at the United Nations General Assembly ahead of a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump said he backs a ban on diesel exports. "I've said let's not send out the diesel. We make a lot of diesel... I've called for it. I've called for it within my people," Trump said, according to CNN and The Guardian.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, standing next to him, was more cautious: "We're examining whether it's feasible in terms of the overall refining capacity and whether a full or partial ban would work," he said, per The Guardian.

That's a notably different tone than what a White House official told CNN just a day earlier, on Monday: the administration is "not considering an export ban or export restrictions at this time."

The Farm-State Push

The pressure campaign started with Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), who posted over the weekend that "HIGH DIESEL PRICES ARE KILLING FARMERS INCOME" and asked why Trump hasn't done what presidents did in the 1970s when they restricted agricultural exports to fight food inflation. Grassley later compared it to chip export controls on China: "If our govt can embargo chips to China it can embargo diesel to help American farmers & truckers," he wrote, according to Quartz.

Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), locked in a tight race with Democrat Josh Turek, echoed the call Monday, blaming Trump's own conflict with Iran for the price spike: "Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn't have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran," she posted on X, per The Hill and The Guardian. She's also calling for suspending the federal gas tax and loosening restrictions on higher-ethanol-blend gasoline.

Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) introduced legislation this month to ban diesel exports through January 2027. Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, whose state hosts some of the world's largest refineries, wants a 90-day ban. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters he's "open to exploring" the idea "if that would take pressure off of prices," according to Morningstar.

The Hill reports the political stakes are real: Democrats now see competitive openings in Senate races in Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska that weren't on the map a year ago, as farmers get squeezed by both the trade war's hit to soybean and pork exports and now soaring fuel and fertilizer costs.

The Pushback

Oil-state Republicans have called the ban idea a "gimmick," per The Hill, and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told CNBC he's "not at all confident" a ban would lower prices, warning it "could actually hurt Americans" if trading partners retaliate with their own export restrictions.

The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers trade group argues the math doesn't work: "producing less diesel also means producing less gasoline," the group said in a statement reported by The Guardian and Quartz, meaning a ban could squeeze refiners into cutting output and shrinking total supply.

Bob McNally, a former George W. Bush administration energy official who now runs Rapidan Energy Group, was blunter, telling CNN a ban would be "taking a sledgehammer to the problem" and "an authentic policy error... the king of the APEs."

Energy analysts are split on whether it would even move the price needle. Jeff Colgan, a Brown University political scientist who built an online tracker estimating the diesel spike has already cost American households nearly $400 each, or more than $51 billion nationwide, told Grist a ban "could make a huge difference." Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy disagreed on X, arguing diesel prices are set globally, not by domestic supply and demand, so "keeping distillates and diesel home does not change the world price."

What's Actually Driving This

The underlying causes aren't really about Trump's policy at all, according to multiple sources. The Iran war has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor Quartz says carries about a fifth of global oil. Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out Russian refining capacity, and Russia, the world's No. 2 diesel exporter, has its own export ban in place through the end of September that's widely expected to be extended, per Morningstar. China has also imposed its own restrictions.

U.S. distillate inventories, which include diesel, sit 13% below their five-year average, according to the Energy Information Administration data cited by Morningstar, while domestic oil reserves have fallen to their lowest level since 1982, per Grist.

No formal ban has been proposed by the administration, and the White House has not committed to one. Whether Bessent's "examining feasibility" line turns into an actual policy, or fades the way past trial balloons have, is still an open question heading into the final stretch before the midterms.