CENTCOM Says Iran Exported Zero Oil Barrels Under Blockade as India Ramps Up LPG Output to Dodge Hormuz Shortfall

Since the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on February 28, the war has dragged into its seventh month, and the fight over who controls the Strait of Hormuz is now reshaping oil and cooking-gas markets from Washington to New Delhi.

U.S. Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper said Saturday that American forces have supported the passage of more than one billion barrels of crude oil through Hormuz in recent months while protecting over 2,000 commercial ship transits, according to Breitbart. Cooper's claim: Iran has exported zero barrels through the strait during that stretch, a result he credited to what he called an "ironclad blockade."

"Over one billion barrels of crude have been shipped from Gulf partners through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has exported zero barrels, thanks to our ironclad blockade," Cooper said, per Breitbart's report. CENTCOM says the effort is separate from but simultaneous with a mine-clearing operation it called a "major milestone" on August 28, when U.S. forces cleared Iranian sea mines from the main transit lanes. CENTCOM also said Friday that American forces had redirected 105 commercial vessels to enforce compliance with the blockade.

That zero-exports figure comes from the U.S. military command running the operation, not an independent auditor. CENTCOM has an obvious interest in describing its own campaign as a success. No outside verification of Iran's export volume appears in the available reporting.

The blockade isn't happening in a vacuum. Breitbart reported that the Saudi-led coalition intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh on Saturday, while the Iran-backed Houthis separately claimed missile and drone strikes on "sensitive" sites in the Saudi capital.

India Turns Its Own Taps Back Up

India, the world's second-largest LPG importer, is feeling the squeeze directly. State refiners have lifted domestic LPG production to about 44,000 tons a day in September, nearly 20% above the August average, according to OilPrice.com and Briefs, both citing people familiar with the matter and Bloomberg data.

The reason is blunt: Gulf cargoes keep falling through. Briefs reported that one September shipment for Bharat Petroleum and two for Indian Oil Corp that were due from ADNOC could not be lifted, and that ADNOC is now the only major Middle East producer still supplying LPG to India at all.

Abu Dhabi's ADNOC says it's holding up its end regardless. A company spokesperson told Bloomberg, as reported by OilPrice.com, that ADNOC "remains fully committed to meeting our customers' needs" and will deliver all contracted October LPG volumes, including five cargoes for Indian Oil and three each for Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum, per Briefs.

India has also leaned harder on the United States, whose share of Indian LPG imports has climbed above 20%, up from just 6% a year ago, according to Briefs. New Delhi eased emergency rationing last month too, letting rural households refill cylinders after 25 days instead of the 45-day gap imposed in March. About 60% of Indian households cook with LPG, so any slowdown hits kitchens directly, and OilPrice.com noted demand is still expected to run roughly 10% below last year's levels through the Diwali festival season in November because of industrial demand destruction.

Washington's Bet: Squeeze Until Tehran Folds

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News' "Special Report" on Wednesday that the Iranian regime is "cornered," describing a strategy of "sequencing" six weeks of military strikes, the naval blockade, and financial sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast. "They're cornered animals," Bessent said, adding he doesn't know if it will take "a week, a month or two months" but expects Tehran to eventually "yell uncle." He laid out three possible endings: the regime turning on itself, an uprising, or Iran actually sticking to a new deal, referencing the collapsed June 3 memorandum of understanding that fell apart when Iran began firing on ships in the strait weeks later.

Oil prices dipped in Asian trading Thursday after jumping 4% the prior session, with Brent falling to $102.13 a barrel and WTI to $91.56, per Reuters as carried by Fox News. Iran says it remains open to diplomacy, but the two sides remain far apart on terms, according to that same Reuters reporting.

The Part That Might Not Reverse

CNN's economic analysis raises a concern: even after a ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz may never go back to being freely open water. Iran spent months after February requiring ships to register with its self-declared Persian Gulf Strait Authority and pay tolls to transit, and CNN quotes Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird, saying "Hormuz closure went from a hypothetical tail risk to a demonstrated and effective tactic."

If Iran can charge tolls once and get away with it, other chokepoint nations might try the same thing later. CNN notes similar precedent already exists elsewhere, though the outlet's report cuts off before detailing which waterways it means.

None of this answers the immediate question hanging over New Delhi's kitchens: whether ADNOC's October cargo promises hold up if the war escalates further, and whether India's roughly 20% production surge is enough to get the country's 60%-LPG-dependent households through Diwali without another rationing squeeze.