Isaias Made Landfall Near Destin as a Category 2 With 105 mph Winds, Leaving More Than 760,000 Without Power

Since Isaias peaked as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds on Friday, Oct. 9, the storm has made landfall, been downgraded, and begun losing its tropical structure. The damage now is mostly about power, water and rain moving north.

The National Hurricane Center put landfall near Destin, Florida, on Friday night with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. That is a Category 2, just short of the 111 mph threshold for a major hurricane. Earlier in the day the center had measured Isaias at 115 to 120 mph.

Landfall and the downgrade

Gov. Ron DeSantis said at a Friday afternoon briefing that the state would plan on a major-hurricane landfall, and that the NHC had shifted its expected landfall east of Escambia County, toward the Santa Rosa and Okaloosa county line, around 11 p.m. He also said some forecasters expected weakening. The storm did weaken, though only slightly, and landfall came within roughly the area he described.

As the eye approached, NOAA observed a water level 5.4 feet above average at Panama City Beach. At Pensacola city hall, a wind gust of 102 mph was recorded. DeSantis told residents at a news conference: "The storm is here. Buckle down at this point. Don't be getting out on the roads."

In its 2 a.m. ET advisory Saturday, the NHC said Isaias has become post-tropical. That means it no longer draws its energy mainly from warm ocean water. The agency had forecast that transition for late Saturday, so it arrived somewhat early.

Power outages and cleanup

More than 760,000 customers across the Southeast were without power as the storm moved inland with sustained winds near 90 mph. Most of the outages are in the Florida Panhandle, with more building in southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. In Alabama alone, more than 250,000 customers were out.

Alabama Power said it has brought in 5,700 additional resources from 25 states. Baldwin EMC crews are expected to start on remaining outages at daybreak.

Orange Beach officials said damage across that Alabama Gulf Coast city was minimal. Crews are clearing debris and downed trees, with roads set to reopen Saturday morning. Hotel and storefront roofs in the Pensacola area did not fare as well. An Agence France-Presse reporter in Pensacola saw winds strip roofs off homes and businesses and snap tree branches as power failed.

No damage estimate has been released by state or federal officials.

Rain and tornado threat continue

The danger has not ended. The NHC warned of life-threatening storm surge of up to 7 feet along the Alabama-Florida line, with forecasts of up to 15 inches of rain in some coastal areas. The agency expects what remains of the storm to cross Alabama and move into the Tennessee Valley over the weekend.

A tornado threat remains across parts of the Florida Panhandle, Georgia and South Carolina. Heavy rain is falling over Alabama and Georgia. The Weather Channel lists Jackson, Memphis, Nashville, Atlanta, Charleston, Wilmington, Tallahassee and Orlando among the cities facing heavy rain and wind on Saturday. Flash flooding is possible across the Southeast, Appalachia, the Ohio Valley and the mid-Atlantic.

Governors of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida had declared states of emergency before landfall, and some coastal counties issued mandatory evacuation orders. The storm also forced schedule changes for numerous college football games, including one cancellation.

Federal response and the energy toll

President Donald Trump approved federal emergency declarations for parts of Florida and Alabama, which authorize FEMA to assist with the response. Speaking to reporters Friday night after a rally in New York, he said the administration is watching the storm "very closely" and that it is "under control." The federal response is the first major test for a FEMA that has been reduced in size, according to the Guardian.

On energy, OilPrice.com reports that Isaias has shut in 71% of U.S. Gulf oil production. That is up from the 63% figure we reported Friday. The Gulf supplies a large share of domestic crude, and prolonged shut-ins would add pressure to fuel prices that were already near $4.36 a gallon earlier this week. Companies have not given restart timelines.

The immediate questions are all about speed. Utility crews in the Panhandle and Alabama go to work at first light, and each hour of inland flooding or tornado activity can add to the outage count. The Gulf production restart cannot begin until offshore platforms are inspected and crews return. How long that takes will decide whether the 71% shut-in shows up as a brief price bump or a longer supply problem.