Europe's Fuel Crunch Widens to Jet Fuel as Q4 Deficit Pegged at 510,000 Barrels a Day

The shortage that started with diesel is now hitting jet fuel too

Europe's energy squeeze has widened into jet fuel. Consultancy Energy Aspects now projects a fourth-quarter jet fuel deficit of 510,000 barrels per day across Europe, according to Reuters. That compares to projected surpluses of 18,000 bpd in the U.S. and 419,000 bpd in Asia-Pacific over the same period.

The mechanism is straightforward. The Iran war, which Reuters says broke out more than half a year ago, cut off roughly half of Europe's jet fuel imports from the Middle East. Europe has been scrambling to replace that with cargoes from Nigeria, the United States and Canada.

South Korea steps into the gap

South Korea is now the newest big supplier. Commodities intelligence firm Kpler puts European jet fuel imports from South Korea at 129,000 barrels per day so far in September, the highest since October 2022, according to Reuters. LSEG data shows similar volumes.

Business Korea reports the country's July jet fuel output hit a seven-year high of roughly 13.89 million barrels, with July refining runs up 16% from June. James Noel-Beswick, head of commodities at Sparta Commodities, told Reuters the widening price spread between Asian and European benchmarks is what's making it profitable for South Korean refiners to ship that far.

Independent jet fuel stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub, Europe's main storage and refining node, fell to a seven-year low in the week ending September 10, per Reuters.

Diesel keeps setting records too

While jet fuel gets the new headlines, diesel hasn't stopped climbing. Daily News Hungary reports France's national average diesel price hit almost €2.41 per liter on Sunday, September 20, breaking a record set the day before, based on an AFP analysis of more than 8,700 filling stations. European diesel futures touched roughly €183 per barrel last week, according to Reuters reporting cited by Daily News Hungary.

Reuters, also via Daily News Hungary, says diesel exports from the Middle East fell more than 50% between March and August, while repeated attacks on Russian refineries and export restrictions have further squeezed the market. Combined, Reuters reports European diesel and jet fuel inventories are sitting at a 12-year low.

Governments are responding differently. Germany has announced a temporary fuel tax cut worth about €0.17 per liter, set to take effect October 1. Hungary's government has opted for targeted financial support rather than reinstating a nationwide fuel price cap, Daily News Hungary reports. French officials have rejected claims of a nationwide supply crisis even as some stations report temporary shortages.

Trump wants Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries

The diesel shortage has become a live diplomatic flashpoint. President Trump on Sunday told reporters at his Doonbeg golf club in Ireland that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy should halt strikes on Russian diesel infrastructure, according to the Associated Press as carried by Breitbart. "He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia," Trump said, adding Zelenskyy should "go after targets but not diesel fuel, because he's causing a shortage of diesel fuel."

Ukraine's position, as the AP reports it, is that the strikes on Russia's oil and gas industry both fund and directly fuel Moscow's more than four-year invasion. The drone campaign has already triggered fuel rationing inside Russia despite the country's status as a major exporter. Zelenskyy has not publicly responded to Trump's specific request in reporting available so far.

The fighting hasn't slowed. Two civilians were killed and 14 injured near an oil hub in Russia's Tatarstan region overnight into Sunday, according to regional officials cited by the AP, after a drone strike near Nizhnekamsk, home to some of Russia's largest refining and petrochemical plants. Ukraine's Defense Intelligence agency claimed a separate strike hit a refinery in Slavyansk-on-Kuban in Russia's Krasnodar region. Russia's defense ministry said it shot down 389 Ukrainian drones overnight. Russian strikes on Odesa injured at least nine people, according to Serhii Lysak, head of the city's military administration.

A reasonable case for Trump's request is that Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are a direct contributor to the diesel shortage now hammering European consumers and NATO allies, not just Russia. A reasonable case against it is Kyiv's, that hitting the fuel supply chain financing Russia's war is a legitimate military target regardless of the price pain it causes elsewhere. Neither side has changed its position publicly since Trump's remarks.

What happens next

Energy Aspects' Q4 forecast and the ARA stock data suggest the jet fuel and diesel squeeze extends at least through the winter, with no OPEC or Iran diplomacy resolution yet confirmed by these sources. Germany's tax cut takes effect October 1. Whether Trump's public request to Zelenskyy changes Ukraine's targeting decisions, and whether that would meaningfully ease European diesel prices, remains unresolved.