Diesel Prices Top $6 a Gallon Nationwide as Storage Data Points to Shortage Lasting Into 2027

Since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began in late February 2026, diesel prices have gone from $3.76 a gallon to a record national average above $6, and new data released this week shows the shortage has further to run.

The national average price of diesel hit $5.85 a gallon on September 4, breaking the prior record of $5.82 set in June 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, according to GasBuddy data cited by the Epoch Times. Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy's head of petroleum analysis, said diesel has stayed above $5 a gallon since July 15, putting 2026 on pace to be the most expensive year for diesel in U.S. history. By September 14, Fox News reported the national average had climbed to $6.23. California, hit hardest, set a statewide record of $8.39 a gallon, according to AAA data cited by the Buffalo News.

The Numbers Behind the Shortage

U.S. diesel stockpiles stood at 107.9 million barrels as of September 11, the lowest level for that point in the calendar year since the EIA began keeping records in 1982, according to Reuters. The EIA's own Short-Term Energy Outlook projects distillate stocks will drop below 100 million barrels this month and stay under the five-year low through the rest of 2026 and into most of 2027. The agency forecasts retail diesel will average $5.55 a gallon in the fourth quarter of 2026, still elevated, before easing to $4.40 in 2027.

Storage market behavior backs up that outlook. Steven Barsamian, chief operating officer of storage broker The Tank Tiger, told Reuters that leasable diesel storage capacity in North America and the Caribbean hit a four-year high of 13 million barrels for October, up from 11 million barrels in June. Refiners and traders are letting leases lapse because there's simply no diesel available to fill the tanks. The combination of falling inventories with rising available storage tells traders supplies will likely stay tight at least through the first quarter of 2027.

Two Wars, One Squeeze

The shortage traces to two separate conflicts. Iranian hostilities have restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor that before the war carried roughly 900,000 barrels a day of diesel and 350,000 barrels a day of jet fuel, about 10% and 20% of global seaborne supply respectively, according to cargo-tracking firm Vortexa cited by the Epoch Times. Traffic through Hormuz has run well below normal, with shipping data in early September showing just four commodity vessels transiting on a single day compared with a 10-day average of about 15.

Separately, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have knocked out processing capacity Moscow needs to keep distillate flowing to global markets. The EIA said it expects those Russian refinery outages to keep weighing on the global distillate market through the first half of 2027. European stockpiles are feeling it too: inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub sat about 16% below their five-year average in July, according to Insights Global data cited by Reuters, while Singapore's distillate holdings have averaged around 8.2 million barrels, down from a 9.6 million-barrel pace in 2025.

Who's Getting Hit

The pain is showing up well beyond the pump. Carmit Glik, CEO of logistics platform Ship4wd, told Reuters diesel costs move through freight rates, farm equipment, food delivery, and home heating, anything that touches a truck at some point in its journey. Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, warned Northeast households that rely on heating oil could see bills rise as much as 31% this winter if prices hold. David Garrigus, owner of waste-hauling business EcoBox Dumpsters, told Reuters he's grouping deliveries and confirming pickup schedules in advance because every unnecessary truck movement now carries a much greater cost.

Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, connected the fuel spike directly to bond markets, telling the Epoch Times that expectations of continued inflation tied to diesel costs are part of why U.S. Treasury yields have stayed elevated.

The Political Fallout

Reuters reported the price surge is stoking worries inside President Donald Trump's own party ahead of the November midterm elections. That tension surfaced publicly this week when Republican Senate candidates Mike Rogers of Michigan and Ashley Hinson of Iowa called for an end to the war in Iran and proposed steps to lower fuel costs in the meantime, according to Breitbart. Fox News separately reported Trump has issued warnings to Ukraine over its refinery strikes, framing the attacks as a driver of the price spike alongside the Iran conflict.

The EIA's own outlook offers the clearest marker to watch. The agency expects Middle East crude production to return to near pre-conflict levels by the second quarter of 2027, which it says would finally start easing refinery constraints. Until then, the agency's own projections show diesel prices staying well above pre-war levels through the rest of this year and into next, with no official forecast for a return to anything like the $3.76-a-gallon average recorded before the fighting started.