Trump Rejects Iran's Ceasefire Offer, Won't Rule Out More Strikes as Oil Jumps and Kelly Blasts 'No Exit Strategy'

Since the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began in February, more than 20 American service members have died and roughly 800 have been wounded, according to Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who cited those figures Sunday on ABC's "This Week."

The latest flashpoint: President Trump rejected a seven-day Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and establish a ceasefire, according to The Hill. Trump said the United States fully controls the strait, through which about 20% of the world's oil moves, and that Iran had suffered a severe defeat.

Oil markets reacted fast. Brent crude rose $1.82, or 1.74%, to $106.14 a barrel in early Asian trading Monday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained $1.14, or 1.23%, to $93.55, according to Reuters figures reported by Fox News. Traders were pricing in the growing risk of a prolonged supply disruption after Trump's rejection reversed Friday's price losses.

Speaking to reporters at the PGA Tour Presidents Cup on Sunday, Trump said he believes "we're going to win this war very soon," and that oil prices will fall "way down" once that happens. He would not rule out more strikes before the midterms. "I don't want to say that. I don't want to say that. I mean, it's possible, but I just don't want to say that," Trump told Fox News.

Trump argued the U.S. has already won militarily and is winning economically too. He claimed Iran's inflation is running close to 300%, with one figure he cited at 318% as of Sunday morning, and said "their money is shot, their economy is shot, their military is shot." None of the sources reviewed independently verify those inflation figures. They are Trump's own characterization.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told NBC News that Tehran is still waiting for an official U.S. response to its proposal through intermediaries, according to The Hill.

Kelly's Critique

Sen. Kelly's Sunday appearance laid out the sharpest Democratic criticism of the war's conduct to date. "The president got into this without a strategic goal, without a plan, without a timeline, without an exit strategy. He's stuck," Kelly told ABC's Martha Raddatz.

Kelly said Trump wants to return to conditions before the war started in February, when the strait was open and Iran wasn't racing toward a weapon, before adding: "they can't be allowed to get a nuclear weapon." He criticized the negotiating team led by Jared Kushner, calling for professional diplomats instead, though he did not name the unnamed "golf and real estate buddy" he referenced.

Kelly put a price tag on the war's physical toll, estimating total costs could exceed $40 billion. That's a considerably higher figure than the $5 billion in damage to roughly 70 structures across 11 Middle East bases estimated in an April report from the American Enterprise Institute, cited by The Hill. The gap likely reflects Kelly including broader military and economic costs beyond direct infrastructure damage, though he did not break down the $40 billion figure in the interview.

Kelly's core complaint is that Trump launched a war without a defined exit strategy. Wars without stated objectives or endpoints have historically dragged on and cost more than initially estimated, a pattern critics across the political spectrum have raised about open-ended U.S. military commitments. Whether that describes the Iran conflict is a judgment call the public will make in November.

Trump's counterargument, made directly to reporters, is that the military objective (preventing Iranian nuclear capability) has already been achieved and that Iran's collapsing economy is doing the rest of the work. Those are two different claims, and only one of the sources reviewed here, Trump himself, has offered numbers to back the economic collapse claim.

The Home-Front Cost

Americans are feeling the war at the pump. AAA reported the national average gas price at $4.48 per gallon on Sunday, up from $3.14 a year earlier, according to The Hill's reporting via ua.news. Diesel prices have already hit record highs, as previously reported.

A Separate Thread: Arrests Near RAF Fairford

Separately, British authorities arrested five suspects early Sunday near RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, a base that has served as a hub for American bomber operations during the Iran war, on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act and violating Britain's Explosives Act, according to Fox News. Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews that details would be released "very soon," calling the joint U.S.-British operation "fantastic" work. No charges or additional details had been disclosed as of Sunday night.

Kelly, for his part, tied the war directly to the midterms, arguing Democrats need to "pass laws" and present concrete answers rather than just criticism. Election analyst Charlie Cook, founder of the Cook Political Report, said Democrats could retake both the House and Senate, though he described it as a trend against Republicans rather than a decisive wave, according to News 247 Plus. Whether Iran, oil prices, or the war's unresolved endgame move that needle is the open question heading into November.