Tankers Hit Off Qatar and Fujairah, Outside Hormuz; Iran Has Not Claimed Either Attack

Since the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on Feb. 28 and both Tehran and Washington imposed naval blockades, the Strait of Hormuz has been the center of the war. This week the shooting moved outside it.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency (UKMTO) said several projectiles hit the oil and chemical tanker Acers, flagged in Antigua and Barbuda, on Wednesday, Oct. 7. The ship was 51 nautical miles (about 94 km) north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar, in the Gulf. UKMTO reported casualties but has not said how many people were killed or injured. Qatar has not commented. The attack fell inside its exclusive economic zone.

On Thursday, Oct. 8, the maritime intelligence firm Vanguard reported a fire on a tanker about 40 km off Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman. Vanguard identified it as likely the Marshall Islands-flagged Dhalgout. UKMTO had not logged the incident, and the cause of the fire was not immediately clear. NASA's FIRMS fire-detection system confirmed a blaze. U.S. military aircraft were over the area, including two KC-46 tankers, a KC-135, a P-8A patrol plane and several helicopters.

Iran's position

Iran and IRGC-affiliated media have not officially claimed either strike. Those outlets did implicitly suggest Tehran had "extended the scope of its operations against commercial vessels that violate Iranian laws and regulations in the Strait of Hormuz to waters beyond the strait."

Acting Defence Minister Majid Ebn ol-Reza posted on X on Thursday: "Yesterday the Gulf of Oman, today the Indian Ocean and tomorrow the Bay of Pigs. If you make a mistake, you will see a new set of dividing lines." Yahya Rahim Safavi, a senior military adviser to Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, had earlier warned that if the U.S. or Israel attacked Iran again, Tehran could extend the war "as far as the Indian Ocean or other places."

On Wednesday, Mohammadreza Naqdi, an adviser to the IRGC commander, told the Fars news agency that routes in the strait Iran deems illegal would soon be closed. He was referring to a southern pathway hugging Oman's coast. Naqdi said those passages were created by blasting rocky channels and are used by "small boats smuggling oil and transferring it to tankers." He added: "The strait of Hormuz is closed, and the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran have full control over it."

Attacks are climbing

In the week to Oct. 5, there were at least 12 attacks on oil, LNG and LPG tankers around the strait, according to data from three security sources. That is the highest weekly level since the war began. UKMTO said Tuesday that nine tanker attacks had been recorded in the strait this month, half of the September total for the strait and the Gulf combined.

India's foreign ministry said Tuesday that 12 crew members were injured when a Panama-flagged oil tanker was attacked in the strait. The U.S. Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center said Sunday that attacks, attempted attacks and harassment, including drone overflights and surveillance, have persisted. It said the actions "continue to demonstrate Iran's intent to assert presence along key transit lanes and maintain pressure on transiting vessels."

Who controls the flow

The two sides give opposite accounts of traffic. IRGC adviser Majid Mirahmadi said an average of 10 ships a day are transiting the strait, against an average of 125 before the war. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that Iran has "lost complete control" of the strait and that "there's almost as much oil flowing out now as there was before this conflict began."

The data firm Kpler's numbers are closer to Rubio's. Its seven-day moving average of Middle East crude exports reached 18.3 million barrels per day on Sept. 30, against about 18 million bpd on average in the 12 months before the war. Those figures cover the whole region, not just ships passing through Hormuz.

Oil and politics

OilPrice.com quotes put Brent at $105.60, up $5.37 or 5.4%, and WTI at $92.93, up $4.65 or 5.3%. Heating oil was up about 5.2% and gasoline futures about 4.6%. Crude had also climbed above $100 on Wednesday.

The Guardian reported that Trump is reportedly considering resuming military operations against Iran in the coming weeks, including the option of strikes before November's midterm elections. In a September interview with Axios's Barak Ravid, Trump said: "I have a big decision coming up. Do I want to go in and annihilate them or do I not?" He also said he was happy with the blockade. Republicans hold small majorities in both chambers and are looking to keep control of Congress while U.S. gasoline prices remain relatively elevated.

No one has said who fired on the Acers or what started the fire aboard the Dhalgout. Whether Iran moves to enforce its declared closure of the Omani-coast route, and how Washington responds, is the next test.

A U.S. decision on strikes is still pending, and Iranian officials are now publicly tying the reach of their attacks to it.