Bitcoin Sits Nearly 50% Below Its October 2025 Peak as ETF Holders Largely Stay Put

Where Bitcoin Stands as of June 20, 2026

Bitcoin's slide from its October 2025 record high is now well into its eighth month. As of Thursday's close, the most recent data in the source material, the cryptocurrency was trading in the $63,000 range, down nearly 50% from the $126,279 all-time high hit on October 6, 2025, according to CNBC.

The coin briefly crossed $65,000 earlier in the week before retreating. The week itself was shortened by a holiday and ended with bitcoin off nearly 2% for that stretch alone.

The Bull Case: Smartphone Analogy

David LaValle, president of indices and data at CoinDesk, pushed back on the gloom in an appearance on CNBC's ETF Edge. His argument was less about price and more about adoption curve.

"When I got my first smartphone, which is a great example of a disruptive technology that has been incorporated into my life, I didn't get the smartphone and say, 'This thing is garbage because I can't get a taxi in front of my home whenever I want it,'" LaValle told CNBC. His point: people didn't abandon smartphones during early limitations, and bitcoin skeptics are making a similar category error by judging a long-arc technology by short-term volatility.

LaValle also argued that the nature of this downturn differs from previous crypto winters. "Unlike previous crypto winters, this is like, 'Hey, when do I get back in as opposed to whether or not there's a future,'" he said. Investors debating timing rather than existence is a meaningful shift if the data backs it up.

What the ETF Data Actually Shows

Todd Rosenbluth, head of research and editorial at TMX VettaFi, offered a more grounded read of investor behavior. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), the largest spot bitcoin ETF by assets, had only recently crossed into net outflows despite bitcoin being down for much of the year, according to Rosenbluth's comments to CNBC.

Investors in IBIT were net buyers or neutral through most of the drawdown before very recently tipping into outflows. Whether that reflects conviction or sunk-cost inertia is a legitimate question the data alone can't answer.

A VettaFi survey of 104 financial advisors conducted in early May found that nearly half were watching bitcoin from the sidelines, while just 22% were actively investing or building positions. "A [crypto] pullback has created a buying opportunity for some people. Others, it might reinforce that they don't want to be near it when something sells off too strongly," Rosenbluth said.

The Strongest Case for Caution

Skeptics have a reasonable argument here, and it deserves a fair hearing. A 50% drawdown from an all-time high is not a minor correction. It's the kind of loss that wipes out years of gains for late entrants. Bitcoin has had multiple such cycles since 2013. Each time, proponents called it a maturation moment. Each time, some investors who bought near the top waited years to recover, and some never did.

The smartphone analogy, while rhetorically appealing, has limits. Smartphones had clear, immediate utility gains—replacing multiple devices simultaneously. Bitcoin's utility case as either a payments network or a store of value remains contested a decade and a half into its existence. The 22% of advisors actively building positions versus the 46% sitting on the sidelines is not a ringing endorsement of mainstream adoption at current prices.

Context from LaValle's View

LaValle's counter to this is historical. He noted that bitcoin has survived multiple "downdrafts over the past eight years" and that institutional infrastructure—ETFs, custody solutions, regulatory frameworks—is fundamentally different now than during previous cycles. That infrastructure argument is substantive. Spot bitcoin ETFs did not exist in prior downturns. The fact that IBIT accumulated significant assets before tipping into outflows suggests a broader, stickier investor base than existed in 2018 or 2022.

Whether that stickiness holds through a prolonged drawdown, or whether it simply delays the eventual retail capitulation that typically marks crypto-cycle bottoms, is the unresolved question.

What the Source Doesn't Cover

The CNBC report is built almost entirely on industry voices. LaValle runs a CoinDesk product tied to bitcoin data, and VettaFi profits from ETF research and traffic. Neither is a disinterested observer. The article contains no bearish analyst quoted by name, no on-chain data from an independent source, and no discussion of why bitcoin hit $126,279 in October 2025 in the first place or what specific catalyst drove that peak. Without understanding the demand that created the high, it's hard to assess whether current prices represent genuine undervaluation or a return to a more defensible range.

The unresolved question heading into the second half of 2026: whether the 46% of financial advisors currently sitting on the sidelines, per VettaFi's May survey, represent a wall of dry powder waiting to enter, or a majority that has already decided bitcoin's risk profile doesn't fit their clients regardless of price.