Trump Threatens to Double South Korea's Costs as Seoul Says It Never Signed Off on Alaska LNG

Since President Donald Trump's September 30 Oval Office announcement that South Korea would pour $54 billion into the Alaska LNG pipeline, South Korean officials have said, repeatedly and on the record, that no such deal exists.

Trump unveiled the figure as part of a $200 billion South Korean energy and infrastructure package, itself a slice of the $350 billion investment pledge Seoul made last year in exchange for lower tariffs, according to the Epoch Times. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called it a deal that "will change geopolitics." Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan, Representative Nick Begich and Governor Mike Dunleavy supported the announcement, treating the Korean money as locked in.

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said on social media that the Alaska project hasn't met the "preconditions" needed to confirm its commercial viability and must still clear South Korea's own legal procedures, according to the Anchorage Daily News. Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan went further, telling The Korea Times and The Wall Street Journal that Trump's announcement went "far beyond what was agreed." South Korea's trade ministry said flatly that "nothing has been decided regarding whether to invest or the size of any investment."

Trump didn't back down. Speaking to reporters on Friday, October 2, before leaving for a campaign rally in Alabama, he denied jumping the gun. "I didn't jump the gun. I mean, they were there and they were represented," he said, according to the Korea Herald. When pressed on South Korea's denial, he said: "If they don't want to do it, that's OK with me. I'll just charge them more. Tell them if they don't sign shortly, I'm going to double it up." He didn't specify what would double, but South Korean media speculated it means his existing 15% tariff on Korean goods, CNBC reported.

Trump kept pushing the next day. At a rally in Ohio on Saturday, October 3, he warned foreign companies they'd have 18 months to break ground on U.S. factories or face tariffs as high as 150%, 200%, 250% or 300%, according to Donga. South Korea's trade ministry responded by stressing that the only agreements on the books are what's spelled out in the two countries' joint fact sheet and press release, Donga reported. Trump's Alaska figure doesn't appear in that document.

Seoul has a legitimate process argument here, not just delay tactics. Kim Sung-won, who chairs South Korea's parliamentary trade committee, told Reuters the Alaska project's business case needs vetting before South Korean taxpayers are on the hook, according to the Daily Wire. That's a standard legislative-oversight demand, not an excuse. South Korea has domestic legal review requirements for overseas state-linked investment, and Seoul's finance and industry ministries have said any Alaska commitment depends on both commercial viability and compliance with those procedures.

The Alaska LNG project itself has a rough track record backing up that caution. The 807-mile pipeline from the North Slope to a Nikiski export terminal has been proposed in various forms for roughly five decades and has repeatedly collapsed on cost and profitability grounds, the Anchorage Daily News reported. Larry Persily, Alaska's former gas line coordinator under President Barack Obama, was skeptical of Trump's September 30 event. Developer Glenfarne, which owns 75% of the project alongside the state of Alaska, hasn't made a final investment decision and says it still needs roughly three million more tons a year in buyer commitments to lock in financing, on top of the 13 million tons it says it already has lined up, according to the Daily Wire. Japan's JERA and Tokyo Gas have signed preliminary deals for a combined two million tons annually.

The timing isn't incidental. Alaska's Senate race between Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola has turned competitive, and control of the chamber could hinge on it, the Epoch Times reported. Trump has also repeatedly flagged that a second candidate named Dan Sullivan is running as a Republican in the same race, which he's called an attempt to confuse voters.

What happens next depends on a review process South Korea's industry ministry says is still underway under the two countries' memorandum of understanding. No dollar figure, no signature, and no timeline for Seoul's final decision exists yet. Trump's tariff threat remains unspecified in size and undated in enforcement, leaving South Korean officials to guess what exactly he means by "double."