Diesel Hovers Near $6.35 a Gallon as GM, Ford and Stellantis Warn of Rising Costs

Diesel is averaging about $6.35 a gallon, just short of the all-time high of $6.53 set the week of September 21. The Energy Information Administration's series dates to 1994. The cost is now showing up in corporate earnings calls.

The Detroit Three reported third-quarter results this month. Sales and revenue are up. The outlook for costs is not.

Detroit's numbers: strong sales, rising input costs

General Motors said light-duty truck sales rose 9% over the past year and revenue rose 2.9%. Ford's revenue rose 2%, and its F-Series trucks remain a company bestseller. Stellantis said U.S. pickup sales jumped 34%, with revenue up 1%.

Buyers are paying up. The average new-vehicle transaction price was just over $50,000 in September, near a record, according to Kelley Blue Book. Bigger vehicles and higher trims carry fatter margins for the companies.

"Customers have been resilient amid higher fuel prices, interest rates and inflation," Ford Chief Financial Officer Sherry Ann House told investors.

The warning came on the cost side. Steel, copper and computer chips have all gotten more expensive. GM CFO Paul Jacobson said: "Should we see prices at this level, it makes that more challenging heading into next year."

Stellantis CEO Antonio Filosa said higher prices for memory chips and other raw materials "will be an industry-wide phenomenon to work with."

Where the costs come from

Since 2025, the Trump administration has put additional tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and copper. Much of a car's frame and weight is steel.

Copper is also pricier because of global demand from EV batteries and data centers. Memory chips are costlier because of a tight supply chain and demand from industries including AI.

Then there is freight. Vehicles move from factory to dealer largely by truck, and many of those trucks burn diesel.

Mike Wall, an analyst at the automotive data company Mobility Global, described the year for the industry as "a mix of suspense and thrills and maybe a little bit of comedy and a little bit of horror."

Tariffs and the broader price picture

Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimates tariffs added about 2.9 percentage points to prices across the consumer goods it studied. Without them, prices on those goods would have fallen by early 2026. Instead they rose.

The researchers found about two-thirds of the tariff-related increase came from imports. Roughly one-third came from products made in the United States.

The White House rejects the premise that Americans carry the burden. "President Trump's America First trade agenda is reshaping the international economic order to reduce our trade deficit, revitalize American manufacturing, and deliver lasting benefits to our workers, farmers and producers," spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said. She added that the administration maintains foreign exporters reliant on U.S. market access will ultimately bear the cost of tariffs.

The argument over "record" diesel

Not everyone accepts the crisis framing. Breitbart Business Digest argues diesel is not at a record once inflation is counted. Its math puts June 2008's $4.764 peak at about $7.20 in August 2026 dollars, and June 2022's $5.81 at about $6.57.

By that calculation, a nominal $6.28 a gallon, the price it cited, equals about $4.12 in 2008 dollars and $5.55 in 2022 dollars. The outlet says that makes it unlikely diesel alone is unraveling the economy.

It also challenges a widely shared headline from The Drive on October 5 that said high diesel prices bankrupted 16 trucking companies in 30 days. The Drive, citing multiple sources, said the 16 operators filed for Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 protection in late August and early September, some of them single-truck outfits and some running dozens of vehicles. Breitbart questions how solid that sourcing is.

Both points can be true. In nominal terms, September's $6.53 is the highest the EIA series has recorded, and an inflation-adjusted comparison is lower than 2008. Neither settles what a $6.35 gallon does to a given trucking company's margins.

Five days out

Affordability is driving the midterm conversation, and voters on both sides feel it. Neil Johnson, news editor of the Janesville Gazette, said in an interview with Northern Public Radio that voters in Wisconsin's Rock County are feeling the same pain on costs across party lines.

In the 1st Congressional District, Republican Rep. Bryan Steil points to expanded domestic energy production, including natural gas, as the answer to high energy and utility costs. Democratic challenger Mitchell Berman wants the tariffs repealed. He argues they leave middle-class consumers going backward even if tax cuts arrive.

A final reading on GDP and inflation is due before Election Day on Tuesday, November 3, according to NPR's Morning Edition. Whether diesel stays near $6.35 or breaks the September record in the next weekly federal reading is what to watch.

Jacobson's remark about next year is the open question for automakers. If current input prices hold, GM has said 2027 gets harder.