Brent Slips Below $97 After Trump Plays Down New Iran Strikes, Yet Tanker and Saudi Attacks Continue

Since the war began in February, Brent crude has swung hard on every signal from Washington and Tehran. Early Monday, Nov. 9, it moved lower again. Front-month Brent futures were down between 1.3% and 1.8% at roughly $96.50 to $97.01 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded between about $89.65 and $90.17, down 0.7% to 1.3%.

The drop followed Trump's CNN interview, in which he said it is "highly unlikely" he will have to resume strikes as long as talks on Iran's nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz keep moving. "They're withering away financially," he said. "We've hit them militarily. We could finish them off."

A deep slide behind the latest dip

Last week's move was far larger. Brent fell about 16%, its steepest weekly drop since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, as traders weighed the chance of a diplomatic deal after Democrats won in the midterms.

On Nov. 2, WTI had already dropped 7.24% to $96.58 in a single session. Even so, U.S. crude is still up about 70% year to date. The AAA national average for gasoline was just under $4.17 a gallon on Nov. 2, down more than 20 cents in a month. Diesel was around $6.29.

Noureldeen Al Hammoury, head of market insights at Equiti Group, told The National that Trump's comments "accelerated the unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium." He said Brent could face further downward pressure toward $90 to $95 if de-escalation holds. ANZ analysts said investors are watching for signs of real progress toward ending the war.

Tehran says the talks are going nowhere

Iran's account is different. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the discussions have made no progress and that mediators stopped traveling between the two sides after the U.S. midterms. He said Tehran is waiting to see whether the administration changes its position now that the elections are over.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also said the talks have made little headway and that a deal is not close. Trump, for his part, has linked the war to Republican losses, and Vice President JD Vance has drawn the same connection. Trump said Sunday that Vance "was right" in his comments, and that he would launch the war again if he had it to do over.

Trump also said the U.S. could hit Iran's nuclear facilities "within five minutes" if needed. U.S. Central Command has offered a reward for information on any movement of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile. "If they are, we want to know about it and we'll take them out," Trump said.

The White House said Trump will meet Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, in Washington today. Doha has been stepping up efforts to broker an end to the war.

Hormuz and Gulf infrastructure still under fire

The physical risks did not ease over the weekend. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations agency reported Sunday that an outbound tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile in the Strait of Hormuz. The crew was safe and no environmental impact was reported.

In a separate incident, UKMTO said a tanker caught fire about eight nautical miles northwest of Khasab, Oman. The crew evacuated, and no cause was given.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps said three oil tankers exploded in the strait after breaching Iranian regulations. Iranian media also claimed several tankers and a tugboat hit mines. Maritime authorities have not confirmed that account. Iranian media said no vessels transited the strait on Sunday, and Tehran said navigation aids in the southern part of the waterway had been destroyed.

About 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments passed through Hormuz before the war began in February.

Saudi Arabia and Iraq

Saudi Arabia faced missile and drone attacks over the weekend. The Saudi Energy Ministry said falling shrapnel from an attempted attack caused limited damage to a Saudi Aramco administrative building in Riyadh on Sunday, with no casualties. Saudi air defenses intercepted several other missiles, according to the Saudi-led coalition. Iran-aligned Houthi forces said they carried out the attack on the Aramco offices.

In northern Iraq, a drone struck an LPG storage tank at the Khor Mor gas field in Sulaymaniyah province on Sunday. The fire burned into Monday, production stopped, and regional power generation dropped by about 2,800 megawatts. Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi said initial assessments showed no casualties.

Kurdish officials called the strike a "terrorist attack." No group has claimed responsibility. The prime minister's office ordered a joint investigative committee with Kurdish regional authorities. Dana Gas, the field's joint operator, had shut Khor Mor in July over security concerns before restarting later that month.

What to watch

The two sides still describe the talks in opposite terms. Trump ties any restraint on strikes to progress, while Araghchi says there is none to point to. The Qatar meeting today is the first scheduled test of whether mediation restarts. Oil is trading on that gap, with Brent still near $97 and attacks on ships and Gulf facilities continuing.