Brent Falls to About $94 as Qatar's Prime Minister Brings Iranian Hormuz Proposal to the White House

Since the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Iran on Feb. 28, oil has swung on every shift in Washington's tone. Monday's move is the latest. Brent was down about 3.5% to roughly $94 a barrel in early trading, from about $97 at the open, while West Texas Intermediate fell about 3% to around $88.

The drop follows a 16% slide last week, Brent's steepest weekly fall since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The proposal on the table

Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman, is due at the White House today, Nov. 9, carrying what two diplomatic sources described to Israeli media as an Iranian-approved interim deal. Neither government has confirmed those terms.

As those sources describe it, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stop attacking Gulf tankers. The U.S. would lift its naval and economic blockade of Iranian ports and release $8 billion in Iranian funds frozen in Qatar. Iran would drop its demand to control the strait and charge transit fees. It would still keep its nuclear program off the table.

The same sources say Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth oppose a deal along these lines. That claim is unconfirmed.

Rubio's public position is on the record. Speaking in Florida on Sunday, he called Iran's demands "outrageous and ridiculous" and said the two sides are not close to a breakthrough. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran's offer to reopen Hormuz within two days stands, on the condition that the war ends on all fronts.

Trump's signals

Trump told CNN that fresh strikes are unlikely if talks produce a deal. "It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement," he said. "The answer is, highly unlikely it's going to be necessary."

He also made the threat explicit: "They're withering away financially. We've hit them militarily. We could finish them off."

Trump had hinted at renewing major attacks after last week's midterms. There has been no sign of a large-scale U.S. operation, and Iran has said it would answer by striking U.S. and Israeli targets.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he raised Turkey's concerns about possible new attacks on Iran in a recent call with Trump. "Unfortunately, we see a negative shift once again," he told reporters returning from Azerbaijan.

Ships are still being hit

The diplomacy is running alongside continued fire in the strait. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said three oil tankers exploded on Sunday after breaching Iranian regulations. Iranian state broadcaster IRIB said four tankers were "halted" over the past 24 hours, with no detail offered.

On Saturday, U.S. Central Command said it disabled a commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman after the crew "ignored repeated warnings and attempted to violate the naval blockade against Iran multiple times."

The two sides dispute which lanes are safe. Iran wants ships to coordinate with its forces and use northern lanes near its coast. The U.S. says the southern routes are safe and open. Iranian authorities have claimed ships using them have hit sea mines.

The Iran-aligned Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on Saudi Aramco's offices in Riyadh on Sunday. In the UAE, authorities in Khor Fakkan temporarily closed a beach after an oil spill, following earlier closures in Umm Al Quwain, Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah in October.

The physical market is sending a different signal from the futures screen. Murban, the Gulf physical benchmark, climbed 3.4% to $99.17 in Asian trading.

What analysts are saying about the price

Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said oil is trading lower "on hopes of a US-Iran peace deal rather than concrete signs of progress." KCM Trade's Tim Waterer said the market is waiting to see whether the midterms produced a lasting shift in Trump's approach or just a temporary change in tone.

Equiti Group's Noureldeen Al Hammoury expects Brent to face further downward pressure toward $90 to $95 if de-escalation holds.

Supply is also a factor. JPMorgan estimated a global surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million in October, as Middle Eastern flows recover and other producers add output. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed to weakness in the physical market.

Oil remains about 50% above its level a year ago, before the war began.

Nuclear and political side tracks

Iran's foreign ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baqaei, said the International Atomic Energy Agency inspected the Bushehr nuclear site "a few days ago." Iran suspended IAEA inspections at all facilities after the June 2025 U.S. and Israeli strikes. Last week, Central Command announced a reward of up to $20 million for information on Iran's nuclear program.

On Capitol Hill, Fox News reports that Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., is expected to re-trigger his privileged resolution to impeach Hegseth this afternoon, citing sources. Massie lost his spring primary and leaves office in January. The privilege lapsed when Speaker Mike Johnson adjourned the House early before the midterm recess.

Triggering the resolution would require a vote within two legislative days, by Wednesday, Nov. 11. Fox's sources say Democrats are largely united behind it, and some Republicans beyond Massie are noncommittal. Absences among Republicans after last week's midterms could leave Johnson short of the votes to block it. Even if the House impeaches, leadership could slow the appointment of managers, and the Senate could table the articles without a trial.

What comes next

A similar U.S.-Iran memorandum reached in Switzerland in May collapsed after an Iranian attack on oil tankers in the strait. Whether Trump will accept a framework that leaves Iran's nuclear program untouched is the open question after today's White House meeting. Araghchi's two-day offer to reopen Hormuz is the next test.