Vance Calls Iran Fight 'Not a War' as Pentagon Signs Deals to Rebuild Missile Stockpiles Trump Says Don't Exist

Since President Trump launched military action against Iran on February 28, 2026, and originally promised it would last four to six weeks, the conflict has stretched into its seventh month with no ceasefire, no peace deal, and no end date the administration is willing to name.

Vice President JD Vance took the podium in the James Brady Briefing Room on Thursday, his first appearance there since former press secretary Karoline Leavitt's departure, and told reporters he can't predict when the fighting stops. That's up to Iran, he said, according to the Washington Post. He also couldn't say when gas prices would fall back to $3 a gallon nationwide, a target Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in July he hoped to hit by Labor Day.

'Not a War,' According to the Man Running It

Asked to characterize the conflict, Vance told reporters, "I wouldn't call it a war. Right now, there is no active shooting," according to The Independent. He added that "major combat operations... lasted for about six weeks" and that recent flare-ups don't change the underlying assessment.

That framing sits uneasily next to the week's own headlines. The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes earlier this week after Iran's military moved to assert control over shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, according to AP News. Iran says a U.S. strike killed five people, including two children, at a wedding in Kuhestak near the strait; a funeral was held Thursday, and the Iranian Red Crescent has asked the International Criminal Court to investigate it as a war crime, per The Independent. Those are allegations from Iran, not findings from any independent investigation, and no U.S. confirmation of the death toll or circumstances appears in these reports. Iran has also targeted Kuwait in what AP describes as retaliation for U.S. strikes.

By The Independent's count, the war has killed 18 U.S. service members, injured at least 750 more, and cost between $71 billion and $118 billion so far.

Trump Says Munitions Are 'Virtually Unlimited.' The Pentagon's Own Contracts Suggest Otherwise

Trump used Truth Social this week to attack journalists reporting on Pentagon stockpile depletion, calling them "treasonous SCUM" and insisting the U.S. has "virtually unlimited amounts of Mid to High Grade Ammunition, far more than we could ever use," according to The Hill. He said weapons sales to allies will resume "soon."

The numbers tell a more complicated story. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated the U.S. Patriot missile interceptor stockpile fell from 2,330 the day before the war to somewhere between 759 and 827 by late July. THAAD interceptors dropped from 452 prewar to between 234 and 278 by July 27, per the same CSIS analysis cited by The Hill.

On Monday the Pentagon signed seven-year deals with General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems and Lockheed Martin specifically to triple PAC-3 MSE interceptor production and quadruple THAAD output, The Hill reported. Michael Duffey, undersecretary of Defense for acquisition and sustainment, said the goal is to "cut red tape, shorten timelines, and rapidly scale domestic manufacturing capacity." A separate deal with Northrop Grumman to boost interceptor production was struck last month. Signing emergency multiyear production contracts while denying there's a problem is not a consistent position.

The Toolkit Vance Won't Open

Vance told reporters the administration has "economic pressure, military pressure, diplomatic pressure, covert pressure" available and will keep specifics private to preserve Trump's flexibility, according to Times of India. "The Vice President, hopefully, is not dumb enough to stand up before all of you and a million Americans watching at home and say exactly what it is that we plan on doing," he said. Telegraphing exact next moves to Tehran would be a strange way to run a war.

Vance also claimed China has been "much more responsible" than Iran and is "willing to play ball" on economic isolation of Tehran, per The Independent. Beijing has previously said U.S. sanctions wouldn't disrupt its trade with Iran, and nothing in the available reporting shows China has changed that position or taken concrete steps to cut Iranian trade. Vance's claim about Chinese cooperation is his own characterization, not something confirmed independently.

Trump separately said he's "prepared" to launch a fresh attack on Iran "any time we want," according to The Independent, even as the Wall Street Journal reports the Pentagon is planning to keep U.S. troops in the Middle East into next year, well past the four-to-six-week timeline Trump gave in February. The conflict is in its seventh month, with troops staying through 2027.