US Intelligence: Iran's New Supreme Leader More Open to Nuclear Weapon Than His Father Was

US intelligence agencies believe Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is more willing than his father to pursue a nuclear weapon, according to a New York Times report citing officials briefed on the assessment.

Ali Khamenei, who died during the war with Israel, had publicly maintained for decades that nuclear weapons were forbidden under his own religious fatwa. His son has never publicly called for building one. But officials told the Times that unlike his father, Mojtaba and the hard-line figures now running Iran's regime show real ambition to get there.

The distinction intelligence officials draw matters. Toward the end of the Biden administration, reports suggested Iran wanted a crude nuclear "asset," hard to launch but useful as deterrence. Mojtaba, according to this assessment, wants something more dangerous: a warhead that could eventually be miniaturized and mounted on a long-range missile.

Ynet News, citing the same Times reporting, adds that Iran has been moving ground forces to protect a fortified nuclear site amid fears of an Israeli commando raid, on top of relocating equipment to the underground facility known as Pickaxe Mountain.

What's Actually Proven Here, and What Isn't

Officials told the Times that much of this intelligence predates the war and comes largely from public statements and conversations from before the conflict. Mojtaba Khamenei was reportedly wounded in an Israeli strike on his father's compound on February 28 and has not appeared publicly or spoken since. He's been keeping a low profile since taking power.

This is an assessment of intent based on older intelligence, not proof of an active weapons program. Officials also told the Times that despite the equipment moved to Pickaxe Mountain, Iran has not resumed nuclear enrichment. That's a meaningful distinction between wanting a bomb someday and building one now.

Trump, asked about the threat, put it bluntly to reporters: "You saw that when they (Iran leaders) shockingly started shooting at everybody all over the Middle East. If they had a nuclear weapon, there wouldn't be a spot... there might not be a Middle Eastern today."

The Broader Fight Hasn't Stopped

While the nuclear assessment made headlines, the shooting war around Iran and its proxies is still active. US forces disabled the merchant vessel M/T Lavine in the Gulf of Oman on Friday, according to the Associated Press, citing a US official.

The Saudi-led coalition fighting Yemen's Houthis said it carried out what it called a "proportionate military response operation" against Houthi-affiliated military sites in Hodeidah on Friday, vowing to keep protecting shipping and the kingdom's interests. Houthi-affiliated Al Masirah television confirmed Saudi Arabia struck Hodeidah, while Al Arabiya reported explosions at weapons depots there and Reuters cited witnesses describing several strikes on the Red Sea port.

That exchange didn't come out of nowhere. Four days earlier, the Houthis had announced an immediate naval blockade on Saudi-linked shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. On Friday, the Saudi vessel NCC Masa took minor hull damage after being attacked in the Red Sea, according to the Saudi Press Agency, which cited an official at the General Transport Authority. The ship and crew were confirmed safe and the vessel continued to its destination.

Bahrain's Interior Ministry activated air raid sirens Friday, telling citizens and residents to stay calm and head to the nearest safe place.

Trump: Talking, Not Deciding

Against that backdrop, Trump said Friday the US is in direct talks with Iran and hasn't decided whether to launch major new strikes. "We're talking to them right now," he said when asked if Americans should expect major strikes. "While we're talking, we'll see what comes in."

He also described the US military as "locked and loaded" to escalate if needed. That's a deliberately ambiguous posture, negotiation and threat at the same time, and it leaves the actual American position unresolved.

The 2026 memorandum of understanding signed by Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian had Iran reaffirming it would not acquire or develop nuclear weapons. Both sides have since been accused of violating that agreement, though the sources here don't detail specific violations beyond the general assessment that the deal hasn't held.

The open question is whether a leader who's been silent and out of public view since being wounded in February actually controls Iran's nuclear posture right now, or whether this assessment describes ambitions that may not translate into action given Iran hasn't resumed enrichment. US officials briefed the Times on both the ambition and the caveat. Which one wins out will show up in whether enrichment resumes, not in past statements from before the war.