TotalEnergies Hikes Buybacks and Dividends as Oil Prices Surge, While Trump Weighs a U.S. Diesel Export Ban

TotalEnergies SE told investors Monday it's raising its dividend by more than 5% a year through 2030 and boosting share buybacks, the latest sign that elevated oil and gas prices are translating directly into fatter shareholder checks at the world's biggest energy companies.

The French energy giant said it will repurchase $2.5 billion of shares in the fourth quarter of 2026, up from $1.5 billion planned for the current quarter, according to Bloomberg. It's also authorized between $2 billion and $2.5 billion in buybacks for the first quarter of 2027.

The announcement came ahead of an investor day in New York, where Chairman and CEO Patrick Pouyanné laid out the company's plan through 2030 and beyond, according to a statement carried by Business Wire. TotalEnergies is committing to return at least 40% of its cash flow to shareholders while cutting its debt gearing ratio below 10% by the end of 2026.

The company is projecting 4% annual energy production growth through 2030, with oil and gas output rising roughly 3% a year on average as low-cost projects already under construction come online. TotalEnergies also flagged a new gas and condensate project at the Absheron field in Azerbaijan, developed with SOCAR and XRG, targeting a 2029 start and eventual output of 6 billion cubic meters of gas and 47,000 barrels per day of condensate, according to Dow Jones Newswires reporting summarized by TradingView.

On the free cash flow side, TotalEnergies is projecting roughly $10 billion in growth from 2025 to 2030, which it says equals more than $4 per share, according to the company's own statement. That's the payoff of what Pouyanné's team calls a "more energy, less emissions" strategy: 20% annual growth in electricity generation alongside a pledge to cut Scope 1 and 2 oil and gas emissions 50% by 2030 versus 2015 levels.

TotalEnergies just posted its strongest quarterly profit in nearly three years, driven by rising oil prices, stronger trading results, and improved refining margins, according to Reuters reporting summarized by TradingView.

While a French oil major is cashing in, the same price dynamics are creating a political headache in Washington. Diesel prices in the U.S. hit a record $6.53 a gallon, up more than $3 from a year earlier, as the war between Israel and Iran has rattled energy markets, according to Daily Wire.

President Trump floated a temporary ban on diesel exports as a fix, telling reporters at the United Nations, "I've called for that, too. I said, 'Let's not send out the diesel.' We make a lot of diesel." Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the administration was actively considering the idea, per Daily Wire's reporting.

Politico reported the White House was weighing a 90-day export ban, though the administration called that specific report "fake." Whatever the exact mechanism under discussion, the underlying political pressure is real: Michigan GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers, Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley, and Iowa Senate candidate Ashley Hinson have all called for some version of an export restriction to bring prices down for American families.

But the pushback from the oil industry itself has been loud, including from Trump's own Energy Secretary. Chris Wright expressed skepticism at a climate event that an export ban would actually lower prices, according to Daily Wire. That represents a notable break within the administration on a policy Trump himself floated directly to reporters.

Oil executives made the free-market case bluntly. Steven Pruett, CEO of Elevation Resources, called it a "bad idea" that "will backfire on American consumers as it will disrupt the natural flow of oil and petroleum products," he told The Wall Street Journal. Canary CEO Dan Eberhart warned it sends "the wrong signal" to overseas customers the industry spent years cultivating. American Petroleum Institute President Mike Sommers argued the fix is "more supply and more flexibility, not new restrictions that risk making a difficult situation worse."

The supporters' case deserves a fair hearing too. Rogers framed it plainly: Michigan families can't wait for the Iran war to end while paying record diesel prices that ripple through trucking, shipping, and food costs. That's a real and immediate cost being felt at the pump and in grocery store prices, not a hypothetical.

Still, the economics cut against a quick fix. Export bans reduce the incentive for domestic refiners to run at capacity and can distort supply chains without guaranteeing lower pump prices, which is the argument Wright, Pruett, Sommers, and Eberhart are all making from inside and outside the administration.

No formal export ban has been announced or implemented as of this writing. The White House has disputed reporting on a specific 90-day framework, and Trump himself said only that a decision would be coming "soon." Whether that decision arrives, and whether it actually moves diesel prices down from record territory, remains an open question that will play out over the coming weeks.