Russia Doubled Diesel Exports in October, Kpler Data Show. None Went to the US as Trump-Linked Tanker Idles Off East Coast

Since President Trump announced his diesel deal with Vladimir Putin on Oct. 9, Russian diesel exports have roughly doubled. No confirmed shipment has reached a US port.

Russia shipped 271,000 barrels a day of diesel in October, up from 135,000 in September, according to Kpler data cited by the Financial Times on Nov. 12. Energy Aspects counted 260,000 barrels a day, and its head of geopolitics, Richard Bronze, told the FT that is still far below the five-year October average of about 700,000.

The extra fuel went to Brazil, Türkiye and other buyers, the FT reported.

The tanker that stopped

The Malta-flagged Agioi Fanendes loaded 40,000 tonnes of ultra-low sulfur diesel at Primorsk on Oct. 23. It was headed for the Port of New York and New Jersey, with a projected arrival of Nov. 7, according to Kpler.

It never docked. Pole Star Global data show the vessel has been holding in the Atlantic since Nov. 9, broadcasting "for orders" on its AIS transponder.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Reuters on Tuesday, Nov. 10, that the cargo will likely go elsewhere. "It'll go to another port," Wright said. "We just want that diesel going into the world markets."

A White House official told the FT that talks with the tanker's owner are continuing. The official said the deal "was made to add diesel supply to the global market, lowering prices for Americans and the world."

Greenpeace has identified five vessels it believes are tied to the arrangement. Four have turned south after passing England, potentially toward Brazil. Abicom, the Brazilian fuel importers' group, says at least four tanker loads are on offer for delivery this month. Its president, Sergio Araujo, told Bloomberg that Brazilian traders find the prices unattractive compared with US-made diesel.

The legal fight

The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a general license authorizing certain Russian-origin diesel transactions through April 7, 2027. Treasury says the license is consistent with previous actions. The administration maintains it is lawful.

Critics dispute that. New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat, said in a statement that the deal is "corrupt and illegal." She has told port and terminal operators to turn away ships carrying the fuel and warned of "harsh penalties." All the petroleum terminals in the New York and New Jersey seaport complex sit in her state.

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) sent the tanker's owner a personal letter warning that unloading would be an "illegal transaction or aiding and abetting it."

The objection rests on the Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act of 2022. Supporters of Ukraine in Congress argue the law bars Russian energy imports and that waiving it requires congressional consent and a presidential certification that the war is over. A bipartisan group of senators has urged Trump to cancel the deal, saying the US "should not provide Putin with a financial lifeline."

No court has ruled on the dispute.

US companies are not waiting for one. Jeremy Paner, a former US sanctions official, told Reuters that for businesses it is "a relatively easy call" to say, "We don't want to touch it."

What it would have changed

Diesel topped $6 a gallon nationally for the first time ever during the Iran war, up from $3.76 beforehand, according to AAA data cited by CNN. The Fanendes cargo is roughly 10% of what the US transportation sector alone consumes in a day, per the Energy Information Administration.

Analysts told the Associated Press the imports were unlikely to do much for US prices. Neither the White House nor the Kremlin has disclosed whether the agreement is in writing, or its price, payment terms or participating companies.

Russia's own supply problem

The International Energy Agency said Friday, Nov. 13, that Russian crude output rose 210,000 barrels a day to 8.73 million in October. The same report said persistent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure "continue to choke off the country's diesel supplies to international markets."

Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries resumed Oct. 30 after a two-week pause, according to the FT. Reuters reported that attacks since late October have disrupted about 30% of Russian refining capacity. Moscow has extended its diesel export ban through January, with exceptions.

On Nov. 11, drones hit Ust-Luga, Russia's largest Baltic port. Leningrad Oblast Governor Aleksandr Drozdenko said the port fire was contained. A pro-Ukrainian Telegram channel, Supernova+, claimed two tankers carrying about 34,000 tons of fuel were damaged and spilled. Drozdenko did not mention tankers.

Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia told the FT that Russia, already rationing gasoline, will put its own market first. Bronze expects Russian exports to stay weak in coming months.

It is not yet clear where the Agioi Fanendes will unload. It is the last of the tankers linked to the deal still near US waters. Whatever port takes it will show whether the license can move a single cargo of Russian diesel in practice, five months before it expires.