Rubio Skips New Delhi for Mumbai Talks and Reliance's Jamnagar Refinery, Drawing Indian Opposition Fire

Since President Trump waived the Graham Act's tariffs on Russian oil buyers on Friday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio's swing through Central Asia and India has picked up a sharper edge. Rubio arrives in India today, Oct. 18, from Samarkand, Uzbekistan. The itinerary has become a political fight in New Delhi before he lands.

No stop in the capital

The State Department's schedule has Rubio in Mumbai on Monday, Oct. 19, for talks with External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. He then goes to Jamnagar in Gujarat. There is no New Delhi leg, and neither government has given a reason.

The row started when U.S. Ambassador Sergio Gor said Washington expected Jaishankar to travel to meet Rubio. Opposition leaders pounced. They accuse the government of letting India's top diplomat be "summoned" on his own soil.

The Indian government's line is narrower. Foreign Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said the Mumbai talks will cover energy, trade and investment, defence, and critical and emerging technologies. "Several issues of a bilateral nature will be discussed," he said Wednesday.

Rubio was last in India in May, when he and Jaishankar signed an agreement in New Delhi. This is his second official visit of the year.

Why Jamnagar

Jamnagar is home to the world's largest single-site refinery, run by Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries. Reliance says it can process about 1.4 million barrels of crude a day. Rubio is also due at a reception hosted by the Ambani family, according to The Hindu.

The stop lines up with Reliance's U.S. footprint. Trump announced a planned $300 billion refinery in Brownsville, Texas, backed by Reliance and developed by America First Refining. Gor told NDTV that the Jamnagar visit reflects Reliance's "incredible" investment in that project. He also indicated Ambani is likely to meet Rubio.

Arpit Chaturvedi, South Asia advisor at Teneo, said Jamnagar's export-oriented capacity makes it a strong candidate to supply refined products, including diesel, to the U.S. market.

The State Department says Rubio will meet senior officials and business leaders to "promote opportunities for commercial investment and economic cooperation."

The diesel clock

The pump price is the pressure point. AAA put the national diesel average at $6.3261 a gallon on Thursday, up from $6.2785 a week earlier and $3.6491 a year ago. The International Energy Agency has warned that tight diesel supplies could keep prices elevated into next year.

Brent crude settled at $109.86 on Friday, up 3.7%, and West Texas Intermediate finished at $101.41, according to Reuters. The midterms are weeks away.

The Daily Wire cited Wall Street Journal figures showing crude moving through the Strait of Hormuz at about 76% of prewar levels. Refined products such as diesel make up only 11% of cargoes, down from more than 20% before the war. Missile strikes and other war-related outages have knocked Middle East diesel refineries offline.

Vice President JD Vance said Saturday at a CBS town hall that gasoline prices "would be three times as high if it weren't for the United States Navy keeping oil and gas moving out of the Strait of Hormuz."

Russian oil and the tariff friction

India is the second-largest buyer of Russian crude. Congress passed the Graham Act, which lets Trump impose penalties of up to 100% on buyers of Russian and Iranian oil. Jaiswal said again Wednesday that India has "communicated its concerns" to Washington about the law. Trump also imposed 50% tariffs on India last August, partly over its energy ties with Russia.

Trump's order waives specified provisions of the law and directs the U.S. Trade Representative to monitor purchases of Russian energy and report circumstances that may warrant further action. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, urged Trump on Saturday to reverse course on Russia sanctions.

The Print reports Trump announced a deal with Vladimir Putin to move Russian diesel into global markets. It would start at up to 500,000 tonnes in November and eventually reach 1 million tonnes. Jaiswal declined to comment on that arrangement. He said India supports any move to "stabilise" global energy markets.

The trade deal

Jaishankar has said the two sides have reached "landing points" in trade negotiations, but no agreement has been signed. Gor told NDTV that the "trade deal will happen and it will be a win-win for both nations." The Trump administration is stressing business deals over policy on this trip.

Whether Rubio and Jaishankar leave Mumbai with anything beyond "landing points" on trade remains to be seen. It is also unclear whether India will commit to more diesel exports to the U.S. while its own Russian oil purchases remain under the Graham Act's watch.