Iran's Guards Say Two Loaded Tankers Hit Mines in Hormuz, No Independent Confirmation

Since Iran seized control of the Strait of Hormuz after the US-Israeli war on the country began in late February, the waterway has gone from a chokepoint carrying about one-fifth of global oil consumption to a daily casualty count. Saturday's addition: Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy says two more tankers are burning.

What the IRGC says

The IRGC said a supertanker "in violation of regulations," carrying more than 2 million barrels of crude, struck a mine while trying to pass "illegally" through the strait. It described an explosion and a "fierce fire."

Later Saturday, the Guards said a second tanker, also carrying more than 2 million barrels, was "engulfed in a massive blaze after hitting a naval mine." Iran's state news agency IRNA reported the second vessel was left immobilised.

IRNA said both ships had switched off their positioning and radar systems and tried to use a route Iran has not authorised. The IRGC also claimed one tanker tried to cross "with US support." It posted video of a vessel in flames at night.

The statements did not give a location, the ships' names, their flags or the origin of the cargo. Reuters reported there was no independent confirmation of either incident.

A week of sinkings

The claims come days after two ships went down. The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore said the Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride was damaged and caught fire in the strait and "has since sunk." All 21 crew were evacuated safely. A sister ship, the GFS Giselle, took hull damage and reached anchorage under its own power with all 22 crew unhurt.

The authority called the attacks "unprovoked, unjustifiable, and a breach of international law." It described the cause only as "unknown projectiles." The IRGC Navy said a cargo ship sank after hitting a mine on an unauthorised route. It is not clear whether that ship was one of the Singapore-flagged vessels.

Maritime officials also said the Antigua and Barbuda-flagged bulk carrier Cape Dao, left burning and adrift after a Sept. 23 attack that killed one crew member, has sunk near the strait.

On Thursday and Friday, Iran's army said two other tankers caught fire in what Tehran calls its "prohibited zone" in the Gulf of Oman. Maritime monitors separately reported two tankers struck in Gulf waters off Saudi Arabia on Friday.

Last Sunday, six vessels were attacked in or near the strait, the most in a single day since the war began, according to security firm Vanguard, the International Maritime Organization and the UK maritime agency UKMTO. UKMTO has also said most ship attacks go unreported.

Who controls the strait

Iran's position is that every ship needs its authorisation to transit. IRGC naval commander Rear Adm. Ali Azmaei warned this week that any vessel that deactivates its navigation systems will be considered "hostile." Tehran says it is stepping up strikes in response to the US blockade of its ports and tougher sanctions imposed last month.

The Trump administration says the opposite: that the waterway is under the control of US forces and Washington's regional partners. US Central Command said last week that American forces had supported the transport of more than 1.25 billion barrels of oil. The US has imposed its own naval counter-blockade on Iranian oil exports.

Both claims can't be true at once. Ships are being hit and sunk while carrying out the transits each side says it controls.

The oil numbers

Kpler data show nearly 20.8 million barrels of oil passed through the strait on Oct. 8. On Oct. 11, the day of the six-ship attack, it was 2.9 million.

Brent crude futures were at $105.51 a barrel and WTI at $97.43 in early Asian trading Friday, before the latest tanker claims.

The war and the shipping disruption have pushed up global energy prices and inflation.

What is still open

At issue is whether the two tankers exist as described. The IRGC has an obvious interest in portraying ships that ignore its rules as reckless. No government has established what struck most of the ships hit this week; Singapore's maritime authority cited only "unknown projectiles," while the IRGC claims a mine in at least one case.

Satellite imagery, insurer notices or a UKMTO advisory naming the vessels would settle it. Until one of them appears, the only evidence for these two fires is Tehran's own account.