Norte Fire in San Clemente Reaches 50% Containment, All Evacuation Orders Lifted

Since the Norte Fire broke out in San Clemente on Friday, Oct. 16, and pushed into San Juan Capistrano, crews have turned the blaze from a runaway wind-driven fire into a mop-up job. As of Sunday afternoon, Oct. 18, the Orange County Fire Authority put it at 50% contained at about 570 acres.

All evacuation orders have been lifted, according to the latest updates. Most were released Saturday evening, with one San Clemente street held back until now.

Containment climbs as the wind drops

Containment has moved fast. It stood at 5% Saturday morning and 25% by Saturday evening, when OCFA Chief TJ McGovern announced the increase.

The Santa Anas that drove the fire have abated. Gusts reached about 40 mph when the fire started in late morning Friday. The National Weather Service had kept a heat advisory in place on the Orange and San Diego county coast until 8 p.m. Saturday.

Firefighters will stay in the area for several more days to work hot spots and secure the perimeter, officials said.

Damage count and injuries

The damage tally has crept up. Earlier updates counted six homes destroyed or damaged. The latest figure is at least seven structures damaged or destroyed. The sources use different units, homes in one case and structures in the other, so a final count is still to come.

Two firefighters suffered what officials called "significant" injuries. Fire officials said they are stable in area hospitals.

About 16,000 residents were forced out at the peak. On Saturday afternoon, OCFA spokesperson Steve Concialdi said evacuation orders still covered about 12,200 people in San Juan Capistrano. He said "a majority of the fire has been knocked down," but warned the wind was "still blowing pretty strong."

Ten schools dismissed students early Friday as a precaution. Orange County sheriff's deputies went door to door in the evacuation zones.

Rain is the next problem

A cooldown is forecast through midweek, with widespread rain likely Wednesday and Thursday and possibly thunderstorms, according to the National Weather Service. Forecasters said that could trigger debris flows near recent burn scars.

"Any time we get high-intensity rainfall with any showers and thunderstorms, if they occur where there's a recent burn area, there's always the possibility of a mud and debris flow," said Joe Sirard, a meteorologist with the Weather Service in Oxnard. "So we can't rule that out."

The models do not agree on totals. Current forecasts call for 1 to 2 inches along the coast and foothills of Los Angeles County and up to 3 inches in the mountains, Sirard said.

He also cautioned that the cooldown does not end the heat. "It's not unusual to get warm spells into November," he said.

One fire among several

Norte was the most destructive of a string of fires this week, but not the only one. A Malibu fire reached about 200 acres and forced the evacuation of a Los Angeles County juvenile detention facility Thursday night. A fire in Azusa burned more than 40 acres, and the Henderson Fire near Camp Pendleton had burned 1,404 acres by Friday morning.

Utilities cut power ahead of the winds. Southern California Edison reported 65,000 customers in Los Angeles, Kern and Ventura counties without electricity Thursday. Pacific Gas and Electric had nearly 62,000 customers in 26 counties dark in Northern California, according to the utility. Shutoffs are meant to keep damaged lines from sparking fires.

Gov. Gavin Newsom had directed CAL FIRE and Cal OES on Oct. 14 to preposition engines, aircraft and crews in Orange, Ventura, Los Angeles and Santa Barbara counties. Those deployments were scheduled to run through Sunday, Oct. 18.

What the season looks like

The fire season had been quiet until this week. About 300,000 acres had burned in California since Jan. 1, against the more than one million acres typically burned by mid-October, TIME reported.

The outlook is less comfortable. NOAA's latest seasonal outlook has the next three months warmer than normal across California, after months of dryness and record heat. OCFA spokesman Sean Doran said strong-wind forecasts are "the most receptive time for any start to really take hold and spread."

Rep. Mike Levin, a Democrat whose district includes part of Orange County, evacuated his San Juan Capistrano family home during the fire. He said "year-round wildfire season" has become the "new normal" for Southern California. A longtime resident, Robert Morris, said this was the first time since 1995 that a fire had threatened his area.

Crews now face a short window. They must finish securing the Norte perimeter before the Wednesday and Thursday storm, when the Weather Service will be watching the new burn scars for mud and debris flows.

The agency has not said where rainfall might concentrate, and the models still disagree on the totals.