Mullin Says 'Zero Chance' Migrant Caravan Enters US, While CNN Sources Describe Friction With Trump Over ICE Arrests

Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin has made his position on the caravan plain. In a Fox News interview published Oct. 2, he said the group moving north through Mexico has "zero chance" of entering the United States.

"We're not allowing them to enter," Mullin said. He predicted the caravan "will probably break up" before it reaches the border and said he believes its members are trying to pressure Mexico's government into granting them asylum.

What Mullin says DHS will do

Mullin said he has told his Mexican counterpart that if the caravan continues north, it will not be let into the U.S. He said DHS has been watching the group "for quite some time" and that Mexican officials are helping break it up. "They understand that they're going to have a crisis on their border, not our border," he said.

He also said DHS could shift resources from across the department to the southern border, including Coast Guard personnel, if the caravan keeps coming. DHS has previously said anyone who tries to enter illegally will be apprehended, prosecuted and removed.

On asylum, Mullin said migrants who have already claimed it in Mexico are now barred from claiming it in the U.S. "There's zero, zero possibility you're going to get in here like the Biden administration and claim asylum with those magic words," he said. In a separate policy event with Breitbart News, he said the administration is "not allowing them to claim asylum unless they can prove asylum."

The legal basis for the Mexico claim rests on Mullin's own description of it. None of the material on the caravan cites a court ruling or a published agreement text.

The caravan itself

Accounts of its origin differ. One account has it leaving southern Mexico in late August. Another has it leaving San Pedro Sula, Honduras, on Sept. 20. The group numbered in the hundreds as of Monday, Sept. 28, and includes people from Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Ecuador and Haiti.

Honduran national José Zelaya told the Houston Chronicle he is traveling with seven relatives because of "hunger and need." He said, "I want to reach the United States." He also said the caravan has no organized leadership.

The U.S. Embassy in Tegucigalpa posted on Sept. 21: "Do not risk your life or that of your family by undertaking the dangerous journey to the north... If you attempt to enter the United States illegally, you will be deported."

The numbers

DHS says it has released zero illegal immigrants at the border for 16 consecutive months. According to DHS, Customs and Border Protection apprehended 8,870 people along the southwest border in August, 5 percent fewer than in July. Border Patrol recorded 10,939 apprehensions nationwide in August, down 3 percent.

Those are monthly totals. During the Breitbart discussion, Washington Bureau Chief Matthew Boyle put land encounters at "something like 10,000 a day." That does not square with DHS's own August figures, which put the whole month under 11,000 nationwide.

Mullin also told Breitbart that 450,000 migrant children are lost in the country and that 150,000 to 160,000 have been recovered. No source in the record backs those figures with documents.

Friction over interior enforcement

The border message is the one the White House wants. CNN reports a messier picture inside the interior enforcement operation.

According to CNN, an internal ICE leadership call over the weekend leaked. Some administration officials came to believe the agency would limit arrests to people with criminal histories. Three sources briefed on the call told CNN the verbal guidance directed some ICE agents to take a different approach to "collateral arrests," meaning people near an operation or near a target. That created confusion among agents.

CNN reports Trump then told a Fox News correspondent by phone that ICE would keep arresting anyone in the country illegally, regardless of criminal history. A source familiar with the incident and a source close to the White House told CNN Trump also directed anger at Mullin privately.

DHS denies any such directive was issued. A DHS spokesperson told CNN the department is focused on delivering the president's mission.

The same CNN sources said Mullin privately supports moving away from collateral arrests, though he has said publicly that anyone in the country illegally may be eligible for removal. One unnamed source said he is "definitely out of step with President Trump and the base on immigration." Those sources also said there is no indication Mullin is at risk of losing his job. He took over DHS about six months ago after Trump fired Kristi Noem.

The Fox clip dated Oct. 2 cuts the other way. Mullin said living in the U.S. five years or 20 years does not change how DHS treats someone who entered illegally. His quoted line: "We're gonna hunt you down, we're going to send you back." That is on the record and consistent with the president's stated position.

Earlier this summer, CNN reports, Trump was furious about a pause on most ICE vehicle stops after fatal shootings in Texas and Maine. Trump overturned the pause after backlash from his base.

What to watch

Two questions are open. The first is whether the caravan breaks up in Mexico as Mullin predicts, or reaches the border and forces the first test of his "zero chance" pledge. The second is whether ICE puts any guidance on collateral arrests in writing, since DHS says none was issued and CNN's sources describe only a verbal call. Midterm elections are weeks away.