Most Gulf Markets Close Lower as Investors Wait to See if Trump Orders New Iran Strikes

Most Gulf stock markets ended Sunday lower. Investors were waiting for any sign of whether President Donald Trump will order fresh attacks on Iran.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index fell 0.8%. Al Rajhi Bank dropped 1.5% and Saudi National Bank, the kingdom's biggest lender by assets, lost 1.3%. Saudi Aramco shares slipped 0.3%. Qatar's index recovered from early losses to finish 0.5% lower.

That is a reversal from earlier in the week. Gulf markets rallied after Tuesday's midterms. Qatar's index rose 2.3% in early Wednesday trading and Saudi Arabia's gained 1.65%. By Thursday, Saudi Arabia's TASI closed up 0.6% at 10,095 and Qatar's index was up 1.8% at 10,066.

A Congress Trump no longer controls

Democrats took back Congress in Tuesday's midterms. By the Associated Press count Wednesday morning, they had cleared the 218-seat House majority with 228 seats and had passed the 50-seat threshold in the Senate. Republicans had held both chambers for the first two years of Trump's second term.

The war with Iran began in February, and voters were angry about prices. Brent crude traded around $70 a barrel before the conflict. It was at $101.50 on Wednesday after a 2% drop. US retail diesel hit a record $6.53 a gallon in September, according to the Energy Information Administration. It had fallen to $4.153 this week.

Trump conceded the link on Wednesday. "I think it's largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit short term," he said when asked about Vice President JD Vance's comments. In a Fox News phone interview late Tuesday, he said: "I think a part of it was Iran, but at the same time people understood the importance of what I've done with Iran."

The fight inside the White House circle

Vance wrote on X after the results: "The reason we lost is the war."

Axios, citing sources familiar with the discussions, reported that Vance led a faction of Trump's inner circle urging a deal instead of renewed strikes. Axios also reported that Vance privately accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of "being wrong on everything" about Iran. Those claims come from anonymous sources, and the White House has not been quoted confirming them in the material at hand.

According to the same report, Netanyahu pressed Trump to resume the war and Trump held off. It also said Trump endorsed Netanyahu in Israel's election over the objections of his top advisers.

Former White House press secretary Ari Fleischer rejects the premise. "The problem was not the Iran War. It was the cease fire," he wrote on X. He argued the war "should have been over six months ago, with the Strait of Hormuz wide open and oil flowing." In his telling, the ceasefire was followed by "months of will we or won't we finish the job."

The two camps disagree on the cause of the election loss. They disagree even more on the remedy.

Where the military situation stands

In a Financial Times interview published Tuesday, Trump said the US has no immediate plans for further strikes. "We seem to be getting everything we want," he said. "I'm ready, we're ready. We're locked and loaded if we need to go, but there may be no reason for it."

Trump also said the US is "not really in a war," citing the B-2 bombing and the Epic Fury strikes. He said there had been no real war with Iran "in a long time, six months, maybe more." That sits awkwardly beside the "eight-month war" that has driven up fuel prices.

The quiet is not total. The US military struck an Iranian anti-aircraft facility Monday night, Nov. 2, and Trump confirmed it to Fox & Friends. Iran's state news agency IRNA reported explosions on Qeshm Island, which hosts radar and drone command sites.

Indirect US-Iran talks took place in Qatar over the weekend of Oct. 31. Qatari officials said Tuesday that negotiations were continuing.

Tehran is not backing down. Iran's military said it had expanded its target list to the "enemy's tangible and intangible assets within range." It promised "an immediate, effective response without geographical limitations" to any new attack.

IRGC Brigadier-General Ali Belali, an adviser to the Aerospace Force commander, said weapon supplies have been "secured for years to come." He added: "If the enemy makes a mistake, Iran's response will be devastating and severe."

Inside Iran, Prosecutor General Mohammad Movahedi-Azad announced an anonymous public reporting system for "the activities of US and Israeli agents." He said it had received more than 20,000 reports.

Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia

The Gulf's own security picture is worsening. The Houthis claimed four missile and drone operations Sunday against Saudi targets. They named Riyadh's financial district, Riyadh airport, Aramco storage tanks and the eastern city of Abqaiq.

Eyewitnesses said a skyscraper belonging to Aramco was damaged. Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry said debris from a foiled attack hit an Aramco administrative office in Riyadh, causing damage but no casualties. Qatar's Foreign Ministry called for an "immediate halt" to the attacks.

The Houthis had earlier claimed a strike on King Khalid International Airport and told foreign airlines to stay out of Saudi airspace. Saudi authorities did not confirm that earlier attack.

It is unclear which of Trump's advisers will win out. Vance wants a deal. Netanyahu and Fleischer want the job finished. Trump says he is ready either way, and the Qatar talks are still running. Gulf markets are pricing in that uncertainty.