Iran Says Seven Tankers Were Hit in Hormuz. UK Maritime Monitor Logged One Projectile Strike Near Oman

Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, the Strait of Hormuz has been the war's central bargaining chip. Iran's claim this week that seven tankers were damaged in a single night, possibly the most since the war began, is still unverified by independent sources.

What Iran says, and what has been logged

Iranian state television, citing a statement from the Revolutionary Guard navy, said four tankers were transferring oil when they were targeted and caught fire. Three more were immobilized after hitting naval mines, the statement said. It gave no casualty figures and no flags for the ships.

The Iranian navy statement, carried by the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency, said the four ships were using unauthorized routes despite earlier warnings to shipping companies. The Associated Press said it could not independently confirm any of it.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations, a British military monitor, did not report the seven attacks. It did log one Oct. 21 incident: a tanker struck by an unknown projectile about 11 nautical miles west of Bukha, Oman. The fire was put out, all crew were reported safe, and there was no reported environmental impact.

Neither the monitor nor Iran has said whether that tanker is one of the seven. The monitor has also noted a new reluctance among some shippers to report incidents, which makes a full count harder. It says October has had the most reported attacks on commercial shipping since March.

Tankers moving in the dark

Lloyd's List Intelligence said operators willing to take the risk are moving Gulf crude through the strait at night, in a U.S. military-protected lane near Oman's coast. They run with tracking systems and mobile phones switched off. The oil is then transferred to other tankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman for delivery to Asian customers.

That lane is exactly what Tehran objects to. The Guard's statement again threatened U.S. military bases in the region if Washington keeps helping to guide commercial ships through the strait. U.S. forces reject Iran's assertion that it controls the waterway and say the United States and its regional partners oversee it. Before the war the strait carried about one-fifth of the world's oil.

Mines are a separate problem. International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez told Fox News Digital that the information the IMO has is that Iran still has mines in the traffic separation scheme. "We cannot guarantee that a vessel that intends to transit that route will not be hit by a mine," he said. Iran has also claimed two tankers hit mines on Oct. 17, and it runs its own transit corridor in Iranian waters with tolls and safety fees, a framework Washington and the IMO reject.

Saudi workaround

Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser said the East-West pipeline, which bypasses Hormuz, has gone from 2 million to 7 million barrels a day. He made the comment in an interview with Saudi-owned Al Arabiya Business. Built in the early 1980s, the line has been central to Saudi exports during the disruption.

Nasser said Aramco has used drones to assess damage from Houthi attacks on oilfields and to help fight fires. Saudi Arabia says at least two people died in recent attacks from the Iran-aligned Houthis, and it has intercepted drones in its airspace.

Talks stalled, forces building

Iran is promoting a seven-day plan, relayed through Qatar, that it says would fully reopen the strait within a week if the U.S. meets several conditions. They include ending the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, in place since July. As of Oct. 17, U.S. Central Command said it had redirected 138 commercial vessels.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the conditions are nothing beyond what was already in the Islamabad memorandum of understanding signed in June. That deal fell apart within days. President Donald Trump rejected the seven-day proposal, and the U.S. says any agreement must address Iran's nuclear program from the outset. Both sides acknowledge indirect talks continue. Attacks on ships have increased since Trump's rejection.

On Oct. 21 Trump told reporters, "We've stopped Iran from having a nuclear weapon." He added that if the U.S. had not acted, "Iran would right now have already used massive nuclear weapons."

The U.S. is sending a third aircraft carrier and thousands more troops, adding to the largest American naval and air presence in the region in decades. Tehran has said it could widen its target list to undersea cables and data centers.

Elections as a trigger

Israel votes on Oct. 27, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could lose power. Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies and a former Israeli military intelligence Iran specialist, told the AP: "Netanyahu wants to attack Iran, that's not even a question." He predicted a clear Netanyahu win would make an attack almost guaranteed.

The U.S. midterms come next month, with war-linked fuel prices stirring voter anger. Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas, in a debate, blamed the Ukraine war rather than the Iran war for high diesel prices.

Regional spillover

Yemen's Defense Ministry said Thursday that Houthi rallies and mobilization programs will be considered legitimate military targets, and warned residents of Houthi-held areas against taking part. The announcement is viewed as a major escalation. Deliberate attacks on civilians could be a war crime.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres is due to arrive in Egypt today, Oct. 23. He has called Egypt's mediation role in the U.S.-Iran conflict vital and described Houthi attacks on civilian targets in Saudi Arabia as "totally unacceptable."

The seven-ship count remains unresolved. Iran has not named the vessels, and the UK monitor has recorded only one projectile strike near Bukha. Israel's vote on Oct. 27 comes first.