Intel memo to Rubio says Iranian plots to kill U.S. officials abroad have reached 'advanced stages,' Axios reports

U.S. intelligence says Iran has "substantially increased" its efforts to target American diplomats and officials in the Middle East and beyond, with lethal plots reaching "advanced stages." That is the core of a one-page, unclassified memo dated Oct. 23 and addressed to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, which Axios obtained.

The memo is thin on detail. It names no specific targets. It names no countries outside the Middle East. It does not describe what the plots are.

What the memo asks for

According to Axios, Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton told Rubio that information about the Iranian assassination plots should reach more U.S. personnel than are currently cleared to see it.

The memo says the underlying intelligence has already gone to senior State Department officials. Clayton offered to downgrade as much of the sensitive material as possible, so Rubio could share it with people who may be at risk.

That is a practical problem. Diplomats and security staff can't protect themselves from a threat nobody is allowed to tell them about.

Staffing cuts across the Gulf

The State Department ordered family members and nonessential staff out of the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh and the consulates in Jeddah and Dhahran earlier this week.

On Friday, Oct. 23, a U.S. official said the department ordered cuts to diplomatic and government staffing at embassies in the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, Qatar and Jordan. CNN first reported those reductions.

"We decided that due to the threat of Houthi attacks and Iranian terror plots we need to reduce our footprint and keep only essential staff," the official said.

The State Department disputes the breadth of what has been reported. Spokesperson Tommy Pigott wrote on X that claims of departure orders across multiple Gulf embassies were "inaccurate."

"The U.S. Department of State issued an ordered departure for non-emergency U.S. government employees and their family members in Saudi Arabia only," Pigott wrote.

Pigott tied the Saudi order to Houthi attacks. "Iranian-supported Houthis have increasingly engaged in hostilities against Saudi Arabia, including attacks on civilian airports and other critical infrastructure resulting in civilian casualties and severe travel disruptions," he said.

The two accounts differ on scope. An ordered departure is a formal step. The unnamed official described staffing cuts at four other posts. The department has not detailed what, if anything, it is doing at those embassies.

Houthis and a possible new round of strikes

The same U.S. official said Washington fears the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen could extend attacks beyond Saudi Arabia to other countries in the region. The prospect of renewed U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran, potentially after the midterm elections, is adding to the security concerns.

President Trump addressed Iran at a campaign rally in Florida on Friday. "We may do another little Operation Epic Fury, or [the Iranians] will agree [to a deal]," he said.

"If they're smart, they will just say, 'Let's get down to business,'" Trump said. "But I doubt they will do that because perhaps they're not smart."

Tehran is pushing back in its own terms. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned Washington against renewed military action and accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of pushing the United States toward another war. Iran's military chief said any new U.S.-Israeli assault would bring retaliation more severe than before. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps separately threatened a devastating response if Iranian energy infrastructure is hit.

The sources contain no Iranian response to the memo's assassination allegations.

A tense regional picture

The IRGC Navy said an oil tanker caught fire and exploded after striking a naval mine in the southern Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media said the vessel had switched off its navigation and positioning systems and was trying to leave through what Tehran called an unauthorized route. That account comes from Iranian state media and the IRGC alone.

In Yemen, the Houthi-run Health Ministry said at least nine people, including five children and two women, died in an air strike in Saada province. Saudi Arabia reported injuries from a projectile attack in Najran. Egypt pledged support for Riyadh.

Vice President JD Vance accused Tehran of threatening global energy supplies and predicted fuel prices would fall once the conflict ends. Trump also waived Russia-related sanctions under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, and oil prices dipped in early Asian trading, according to Times of India reporting.

What comes next

The calendar is crowded. Israel holds a parliamentary election on Oct. 27 and has raised its military alert over fears of an Iranian attack. U.S. midterms follow in the first week of November.

It is unclear whether Rubio will take Clayton up on the offer to downgrade the intelligence so it can reach the diplomats and staff at the posts still operating in the region.