Hurricane Simon Reaches 155 mph Off Mexico's Pacific Coast, Landfall Expected Sunday

Hurricane Simon intensified to a powerful Category 4 storm Saturday, Oct. 10, and is on course to reach Mexico's Pacific coast today, Sunday, Oct. 11.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Saturday night that maximum sustained winds had climbed to 155 mph. Category 5 starts at 157 mph. Earlier Saturday, the center had put the winds at 150 mph.

Where it is and where it is headed

By Saturday night, Simon was about 65 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico's largest Pacific port, moving slowly northward at 5 mph. Earlier Saturday it had been about 115 miles out.

The hurricane center expects the storm to be near or just inland of the west-central coast on Sunday as a major hurricane. A major hurricane is Category 3 or stronger, meaning winds of at least 111 mph. Further strengthening before landfall was possible, the center said.

Forecasters also said Simon could weaken rapidly once its core moves fully onshore.

A hurricane warning covers part of the Pacific coast south of Puerto Vallarta, including the Manzanillo area and the Islas Marías archipelago offshore. A tropical storm watch is in effect farther south toward Lázaro Cárdenas.

Rain, surge and mudslides

Water is the main threat. The hurricane center forecasts 10 to 20 inches of rain across parts of southwestern Mexico through Sunday. Isolated areas of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco could get up to 30 inches.

"This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain," the center said in its bulletin. Mexican authorities also warned of heavy rain in Guerrero and Nayarit.

The center expects a dangerous storm surge "along the immediate coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall," with large and destructive waves on top of it.

Tropical-storm conditions were due to reach the coast Saturday afternoon. The center told residents in the warning area that preparations "should be rushed to completion" before conditions deteriorate overnight.

AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Pydynowski pointed to how fast the storm grew. "Simon has strengthened incredibly quickly, and that's what makes storms like this so dangerous," he said. He warned that flooding and mudslides could wash out roads and keep emergency crews from reaching some communities, and that power outages and damaged infrastructure could slow recovery.

Preparations on the ground

Jalisco state suspended classes Friday and Monday in 22 coastal municipalities and began evacuating dozens of people from at-risk areas. State officials also asked Puerto Vallarta's tourism sector to get workers and visitors into shelters or safe zones.

In Puerto Vallarta, a popular destination for U.S. tourists, convenience stores, hotels and malls boarded up windows Saturday. Businesses placed sandbags at entrances. Few people were on the streets under overcast skies.

Shop worker Jesus Gomez was handing out candied-peanut samples Saturday morning. "We'll be working as usual throughout the day, but when Civil Protection officials come and tell us we need to close, then we'll close and take shelter until the storm passes," he said.

Canadian tourist Ed Currie, who has five more days left in Puerto Vallarta, said the storm had not yet changed his plans. "Just stay in the hotel and look out the window hopefully," he said. "I just don't know what to expect."

Farther down the coast in Manzanillo, a Reuters reporter on the ground found residents largely calm Saturday afternoon, with little panic buying at supermarkets. Some stores had begun boarding up, businesses were closing and streets were relatively empty.

Rain had fallen intermittently since late Friday. Rising seas were pushing waves almost to the entrances of beachfront hotels, though strong winds had not yet arrived.

Civil protection workers closed beaches, put up barriers and raised red and black warning flags. Marines, soldiers, National Guard officers and emergency personnel patrolled areas prone to flooding and landslides.

Authorities began precautionary evacuations in parts of Cihuatlán, a flood-prone municipality in Jalisco near Manzanillo. Rivers in some areas were already running high, and there were concerns they could overflow if heavy rain intensified.

A crowded storm map

Simon is not the only system in play. Tropical Storm Rachel was headed for Baja California's northern coast, bringing rain and coastal flooding to Southern California. Hurricane Isaias, the Atlantic season's first named hurricane, was moving through the U.S. Southeast. Four deaths have been tied to that storm.

What to watch

The open questions are where exactly Simon's center crosses the coast, whether it reaches Category 5 first, and how much rain falls on the steep terrain of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. Classes in Jalisco's 22 coastal municipalities remain suspended Monday, Oct. 12.