US and Poland Sign $4 Billion Loan Guarantee for American Weapons, Total Financing Nears $20 Billion

Poland and the United States signed a $4 billion Foreign Military Financing loan guarantee agreement Wednesday in Warsaw, the sixth such deal between the two countries and one that pushes total US financing for Polish rearmament to nearly $20 billion, according to multiple outlets including Breaking Defense and Notes from Poland.

Thomas DiNanno, the US Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, signed on behalf of Washington. Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz called the deal "a great honour," saying FMF financing is "granted only to the best allies," according to Notes from Poland. The US Embassy in Warsaw said the agreement reaffirms "the strength of the US-Poland partnership as we work together to strengthen NATO."

DiNanno went further, according to Notes from Poland, saying Poland "is not only a trusted partner; it is not only an ally on the front line; it is a model ally of the United States." That language echoes recent remarks from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Where the Money Might Go

Warsaw hasn't spelled out exactly how it will spend the new $4 billion. Kosiniak-Kamysz said the financing would "accelerate the implementation of existing contracts, including for Apache helicopters," a reference to Poland's 2024 deal for 96 AH-64E Apaches worth roughly $10 billion, which will make Poland the world's second-largest Apache operator behind the US itself.

Breaking Defense reported the money could also go toward buying 32 additional F-35 fighter jets, on top of the 32 Poland already ordered in a 2020 deal worth $4.6 billion. Poland has received eight of those jets so far. Defence24 reported that Poland's Ministry of National Defence has confirmed plans to purchase two more F-35 squadrons, and that DiNanno floated F-35 funding for a prior tranche of FMF money back in June.

But no F-35 top-up contract has been signed. Dennis Göge, Lockheed Martin's Chief Executive Europe, told Breaking Defense on the sidelines of the MSPO defense trade show that "there is no decision being made so far" on a second Polish F-35 order, and that Lockheed is still "in discussions with the Polish customer to better understand the specific requirements." Boeing has also been pitching the F-15, and a Eurofighter Typhoon offer remains on the table.

Favorable Terms, Real Exposure

Marta Postuła, vice president of Poland's national development bank BGK, which channels the FMF funds, said the new loan carries better terms than the previous two guarantees because of US subsidies, according to Notes from Poland. Kosiniak-Kamysz added that the arrangement lowers Poland's debt-servicing costs compared to borrowing on commercial markets.

A loan guarantee lets Poland borrow cheaper because Washington is standing behind the debt. But a guarantee is still exposure. If Poland were ever unable to service that debt, American taxpayers would be the ones backstopping it. Given Poland's defense budget, now the highest relative to GDP in NATO according to Notes from Poland, and its status as NATO's largest arms importer between 2021 and 2025, that risk looks low. It isn't zero, and nobody in the official statements addressed it directly.

The Bigger Picture

Poland has bought roughly 44% of its defense imports from the US in recent years, according to Notes from Poland, including Abrams tanks, Patriot missile batteries, and HIMARS rocket artillery. The rearmament push accelerated after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Defence24 tied the timing of the signing to a broader diplomatic moment, noting it came after the CIA director's visit to Moscow and separate negotiations involving Trump administration envoys, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy over the future of the war in Ukraine. Poland is also pushing for a permanent US military base on its soil and awaiting details on a reported Trump administration plan to deploy 5,000 additional US troops there, according to Ground News.

One outlet, Streamline Feed, framed the new $4 billion as stacking on top of a separate, earlier $2 billion US loan for a combined total of roughly $6 billion in financing. That framing undercounts the picture other outlets present: Breaking Defense, Notes from Poland, and news.am all describe this as the sixth FMF agreement in a series that now totals close to $20 billion, not a standalone $6 billion arrangement.

What remains unresolved is the F-35 question. Poland's Ministry of National Defence has floated a second squadron purchase, but Lockheed says no contract exists yet, and Boeing and the Eurofighter consortium are still actively competing for the business. Whether the new $4 billion ends up buying more stealth jets, more Apaches, or something else entirely is a decision Warsaw has yet to make public.