Ukrainian Drone Strikes Are Cutting Off Russia's Oil Exports and India Is Feeling It

Russia can't move its own oil anymore. Not because Washington finally scared India into stopping, but because Ukrainian drones keep hitting the pipes, ports, and refineries that make Russian crude usable in the first place.

Seaborne Russian crude shipments dropped to 3.46 million barrels a day in the four weeks ending August 23, according to Bloomberg data cited by Pravda. Russia produced 8.887 million barrels a day in July, the lowest level in six years and nearly a million barrels below its OPEC+ quota, per OPEC secondary-source estimates reported by Bloomberg.

Independent estimates cited by NPR put roughly a third of Russian oil production offline. CNN, citing research firm Capital Economics, puts the refining capacity hit at around 40%, translating to about 3% of global refining capacity gone. Whichever number you use, Russia's oil machine is broken in a way it wasn't a year ago.

Russia is now importing gasoline

Russia, one of the largest oil producers on Earth, is short on gas. NPR's Charles Maynes reported from Moscow that drivers in Sochi have waited in line since 2 a.m. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who oversees the energy sector, admitted "problems with logistics" to state media and confirmed Russia is now importing fuel from India, Kazakhstan and Belarus.

Crypto Briefing's reporting fills in the mechanism: Moscow ships raw crude to India at a discount, Indian refiners process it, and some of that finished gasoline flows back to Russia because Russian refineries can't meet domestic demand. Moscow has also banned gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel exports through the end of January 2027, according to CNN.

Vladimir Putin, per NPR, has publicly waved off the damage, saying there will be no "critical consequences" to the Russian economy or war effort. The Russian Orthodox Church, according to NPR, has used the pulpit to urge patience, with archpriest Alexander Butrin warning it's "un-Christian" to let fuel-shortage anger turn into anti-government protest. That message lands ahead of parliamentary elections where, NPR notes, critics of the war have already been stripped from the ballot.

Where India fits, and where Breitbart's framing gets ahead of the facts

Breitbart's coverage leads with Trump and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte's tariff and sanctions threats, reporting that Indian state refiners "reportedly stopped buying Russian oil last week" after Trump warned of secondary sanctions and slapped 25% tariffs on Indian exports over Russian energy purchases. That pressure campaign is real. Rubio and Rutte's warnings are real and on the record.

But the trade data tells a more complicated story than "India caved to tariffs." Business Standard, citing Kpler's Sumit Ritolia, reports Indian imports of Russian crude actually surged to a record 2.6-2.8 million barrels a day through June and July, more than half of India's total oil imports, well after Trump's tariff threats began. The pullback to around 2 million barrels a day this month is attributed by Ritolia to "normalization after very strong crude-buying," reduced Russian export availability, and rising competition from China for the same discounted barrels, not a policy-driven boycott.

Indian Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri dismissed the tariff threat outright in July, according to Breitbart, saying India had diversified from roughly 27 supplier countries to about 40 and wasn't worried. Business Standard reports Indian Oil Corporation has since issued tenders reaching as far as the Americas and West Africa, alongside Gulf suppliers, even with Strait of Hormuz flows still restricted by the US-Iran war.

Both forces are operating on India at once. Tariff pressure from Washington makes Russian barrels politically riskier for private refiners like Reliance Industries, which Crypto Briefing reports has intermittently pulled back during heightened sanctions enforcement. But the physical supply crunch from Ukraine's strikes on Novorossiysk and other terminals, which handled roughly 840,000 barrels a day bound for India, is squeezing the volume available regardless of what Delhi wants to buy.

The profit side nobody's angry about

CNN reports the diesel crack spread, a measure of refining profit margin, hit $102 a barrel on Monday, an all-time high and nearly triple pre-war levels. Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy Group called it "man-bites-dog news," telling CNN "the market is screaming that we're short."

American refiners are cashing in. Shares of Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy have more than doubled this year, and Phillips 66 is up almost 90%, according to CNN. Exxon and Chevron are posting outsized profits from the same squeeze that's putting Russian drivers in gas lines.

Ukraine's General Staff confirmed on August 11 it struck the Orsknefteorgsintez refinery in Orenburg Oblast, a facility producing about 6 million tons of oil products annually, according to the Epoch Times. Russia has responded by hitting Ukrainian logistics hubs it says store drone components and military supplies. Neither side shows signs of stopping. The open question is how long Moscow's fuel rationing holds before it becomes a political liability at home, something even the Russian Orthodox Church now seems worried enough about to preach against.