UK Government Set to Approve Jackdaw Gas Field by Mid-September, Rosebank Decision Still Uncertain

The UK government is expected to approve the Jackdaw gas field off Aberdeen as soon as mid-September, before Parliament breaks for party conference season, according to government and industry sources cited by the BBC.

The decision has been in limbo since the Court of Session in Edinburgh ruled in January 2025 that Jackdaw and the larger Rosebank oil field had been unlawfully approved by the previous Conservative government. Judges found that ministers failed to account for the climate impact of burning the oil and gas once extracted, a challenge brought by Greenpeace.

Both fields are operated by Adura, a joint venture between Shell and Norway's Equinor. Aberdeen-based Ithaca holds a 20% stake in Rosebank. Updated climate impact assessments went out for public consultation in July, with the Jackdaw consultation closing August 10 and Rosebank's closing August 17, according to the BBC and Aberdeen Live.

Alliance News reported on August 17 that Prime Minister Andy Burnham is "minded to approve" Jackdaw, citing Telegraph reporting based on Labour insiders, though no formal decision had been made at that point. The same insiders reportedly warned industry to brace for Rosebank being rejected, since it is a considerably larger project. One option under discussion was delaying any Jackdaw announcement until after a summer heatwave passed, since approving new fossil fuel drilling mid-heatwave was described as "politically challenging."

The final call rests with Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh, who has previously opposed new oil and gas drilling but told reporters in July she would be "pragmatic" on North Sea decisions. Speaking in the House of Commons, Energy Minister Kate White said Fahnbulleh would make separate decisions on the two sites but gave no indication of timing, telling MPs: "The process ended in August, and the Secretary of State will be taking those decisions in due course."

The numbers in dispute

Adura says Jackdaw could supply up to 6% of UK gas demand at peak production. Environmental groups dispute that, putting the real figure closer to 2%, according to the BBC. Adura has also estimated the field could produce 35.8 million tonnes of carbon over its 11-year lifetime, equivalent to 90% of Scotland's entire 2023 emissions, though the company says a more likely estimate is 23.6 million tonnes, or roughly 60% of that figure.

Adura says construction is "99% complete" and has said that if approval comes in September, the field could start delivering gas to UK homes by this winter. That remains contingent on the approval decision, which had not been made as of the BBC's reporting. Industry body Offshore Energies UK says Rosebank and Jackdaw combined would support a peak of 3,500 construction jobs and 880 ongoing jobs over their lifespans, per Aberdeen Live.

Storage crisis adds pressure

The timing coincides with a bleak backdrop for UK gas security. Centrica CEO Chris O'Shea has warned that UK gas storage sits at just 31% capacity, according to Breitbart's citation of Bloomberg data via The Daily Telegraph, compared with 47% at the same point in 2025. O'Shea called the situation a national security concern, writing that Britain has "almost no gas in storage" for the coming winter. Breitbart reported that rushing to fill reserves now could cost over £1.9 billion at current European gas prices, costs likely to be passed to consumers this winter. The BBC separately noted that a green light for Jackdaw would not lower gas prices for consumers, since prices are set internationally, though domestic extraction produces lower emissions than imported liquefied natural gas.

Scottish Conservative energy spokesman Andrew Bowie has called the Jackdaw and Rosebank decisions "life or death" for the North Sea industry, pointing to BP's exit from North Sea operations as a warning sign, according to Aberdeen Live.

The opposing case

Climate campaign coalition Stop Climate Chaos Scotland, representing more than 70 organizations, sent a letter warning Burnham and Fahnbulleh that the consequences of climate change are already being felt and urging them to block both developments, Aberdeen Live reported. Environmental groups argue that neither field would meaningfully improve energy security given the modest 2% supply estimate they cite, and that transitioning sooner to greener technologies would be better for supporting jobs. Tessa Khan, executive director of Uplift, the group that brought the legal challenge, told the BBC that more North Sea drilling would not cut energy bills and would "make no meaningful difference" to UK energy supply.

Just Stop Oil activists blockaded Parliament Square on September 2, disrupting Burnham's first Prime Minister's Questions since taking office, according to the Epoch Times. The Metropolitan Police confirmed 59 arrests for offenses including disrupting key national infrastructure and "locking on" to cause serious disruption. It was the group's first major public disruption campaign since pausing in 2025. Activist Trish Fitzmaurice, arrested at the scene, said in a statement that "oil and gas mean death" and called on Burnham to sign a "Fossil Fuel Treaty."

Deputy Labour leader Lucy Powell told the Financial Times in July that Burnham would not overturn Labour's manifesto pledge to end new North Sea exploration licenses.

Shell shares traded around 3,314 pence in London and Equinor shares around €35.44 in Frankfurt as of mid-August, according to Alliance News, with modest movement in either direction tied to the ongoing uncertainty.

The formal decision on both fields now rests with Fahnbulleh's office. Sources have told the BBC that approval for Jackdaw could come as soon as mid-September, and Adura has said gas could begin flowing to UK homes this winter if that approval comes through — a timeline that would collide directly with the low storage levels O'Shea has flagged. Rosebank's fate remains the more open question, with Labour insiders reportedly signaling a rejection is more likely than not.