UK Cocaine Use Up 26% by Sewage Estimate as US Overdose Deaths Fall 41% From Peak

Two countries, two very different drug stories. In England, cocaine consumption is climbing by one measure. In the United States, overdose deaths have dropped sharply from their peak.

Britain: more cocaine, same number of users

In June, Home Office scientists published an experimental estimate of cocaine consumption based on sewage samples. It found use rose 26% between 2021 and 2025.

People in England consumed an estimated 123,000kg of cocaine in 2024-25, according to the estimate. That is roughly 2.5bn lines, with an estimated street value of £9.8bn.

The Home Office figure sits awkwardly beside crime survey data. That survey shows the number of people reporting cocaine use in the past year has stayed flat or dipped slightly since the pandemic.

One explanation is that the same or fewer people are using more often. Another is that the survey leaves out homeless people and those in institutions, and some respondents won't admit to breaking the law.

Dr Josh Torrance, a drug-market specialist, argues wastewater catches what surveys miss. After surveying festivalgoers, he said: "People are often not honest about their drug use with strangers."

Sewage estimates carry substantial margins of error, and the estimated street value should be taken with a pinch of salt. The direction of travel, the Guardian reports, is broadly accurate.

Deaths linked to the drug in Britain have risen to record levels, and the supply chain feeds a multibillion-pound criminal industry.

Prices dropped, then jumped

For several years, cocaine got cheaper. The National Crime Agency told the Guardian that wholesale prices fell below pre-pandemic levels in 2022 and hit "historically low levels" in 2025. The agency now sees signs of wholesale prices rising again in 2026.

Torrance tracks advertised prices for an ounce from a pool of vendors. It fell from about £1,300 in March 2022 to about £1,000 by August 2023. When he resumed collecting in September 2025, it was about £700.

The price held there until June, then rose to roughly £800. It reached £1,000 in July and eased to about £950 by September.

"I've never seen such a quick increase in the price of cocaine," he said of the summer jump. He suspects a supply disruption but says the cause is hard to pin down in a market with many suppliers and routes.

Cheap supply carries its own risk. Torrance says cocaine sold as "pure" is often 70-80% pure, which makes cheaper supply more dangerous. In his view, "a reduced price drives up use. With increased use and increased purity, you end up with more deaths."

America: overdose deaths well below peak

Across the Atlantic, the numbers are heading the other way. The CDC's provisional estimate puts overdose deaths at 66,478 for May 2025 through May 2026.

That compares with more than 112,400 at the peak under former President Joe Biden, a drop of about 41%. Officials say it is the lowest predicted provisional estimate since January 2017, when former President Obama was leaving the White House.

By drug category, officials cite these declines:

• Heroin deaths: down more than 32%.
• Synthetic opioids: down more than 19%.
• Psychostimulants, including methamphetamine: down over 14%.
• Natural and semi-synthetic opioids: down nearly 7%.
• Cocaine deaths: down almost 6%.

Sara Carter, director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy, says the figures show President Trump's National Drug Control Strategy is working. "There are over 45,000 Americans alive today because of the bold, decisive, and effective actions taken by this administration," she said. She added that "the only acceptable number of overdose deaths is zero."

That 45,000 figure is the administration's own claim. The numbers are also provisional CDC estimates, not final counts.

The comparison also runs from a peak that came under the previous administration. The figures cited don't split the drop between the two periods, and the administration's attribution is its own.

The small cocaine decline stands out. Even as overdose deaths fall broadly in the US, cocaine's drop is the smallest on the list. In Britain, cocaine deaths are at a record.

What the numbers can and cannot show

Both stories rely on estimates. The Home Office labels its sewage figure experimental, and sewage estimates carry substantial margins of error. The CDC numbers are provisional.

The British dispute is over method: wastewater says consumption is up, the crime survey says users haven't grown. Torrance backs the sewage data. The survey's limits, such as exclusions and underreporting, are the ones the Guardian points to.

The open question for Britain is whether the NCA's reported 2026 price rise cuts consumption or just shrinks supply. Torrance's September figure of about £950 an ounce, down slightly from July's £1,000, gives only a short trend line.