UK Approves Jackdaw Gasfield; Guardian Sources Say Energy Secretary Is Leaning Against Rosebank

The Jackdaw approval has now been delivered, and attention has moved straight to the far bigger Rosebank oilfield.

Miatta Fahnbulleh approved the Jackdaw gasfield on Wednesday, Oct. 21, and spoke during a visit to Aberdeen. Jackdaw is due to begin producing gas within weeks.

She said she was satisfied the field would not violate the UK's climate commitments, even though it will add an estimated 36 million tonnes of carbon emissions. "As we make the transition, we are going to need gas," she said. "At a point when we have got conflict in the Middle East that is triggering an energy crisis, energy security is vital, and homegrown energy is key." She admitted it would not help bring down bills, saying: "This is not about bills."

Rosebank: a signal, not a decision

Sources told the Guardian that Fahnbulleh is minded to reject Rosebank, which the Guardian describes as one of the biggest oilfields in the North Sea. That is the Guardian's own sourcing, and officials say she has not yet taken a final decision.

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero called it "speculation." A spokesperson said: "As the energy secretary has said, each project will be assessed on its own merits."

On the record, Fahnbulleh drew a line between the two projects. "One is a gasfield that caters for the domestic market, while the other is an oilfield that is mainly for export," she said. She added: "It is right that we judge each application in its own right, and it is absolutely critical that the decision is consistent with our climate obligations, our carbon budgets and the end destination we need to get to with the energy transition."

The Guardian reports that Rosebank would emit about seven times the carbon of Jackdaw, and that Fahnbulleh is understood to believe it would do less for UK energy security because most of its oil would be exported.

A split at the top

The energy secretary may not have the last word. According to the Guardian, she could still be overruled by Andy Burnham, who may hear different representations from the chancellor, John Healey. Burnham would be expected to make the final call if there is conflict on the decision.

Healey told ITV he expected "oil and gas" revenues to contribute to a new energy wealth fund. The Guardian read that as a sign he anticipates new oil revenues.

Labour MPs warned on Wednesday there would be a major pushback in the party if Rosebank were approved, the Guardian reported. Most are prepared to accept the argument that Jackdaw was a necessity as part of the transition to net zero. MPs are understood to have discussed ways of forcing or encouraging a parliamentary vote on Rosebank should it be approved, as a way of expressing dissent.

A final decision is expected before the end of this year.

The price backdrop

The decision lands in a market that remains tight. Euronews reported Brent crude trading at $110 a barrel on Wednesday, and CNN reported it above $111 on Tuesday, which would put it at its highest settlement since May if it holds.

International Energy Agency executive director Fatih Birol told the Financial Times Energy Transition Summit in London on Tuesday: "I don't see any credible pathway that 2027 will be a year of normalisation." The Strait of Hormuz has been closed once, he said, and "it can be closed again."

Birol also said assessing the crisis by looking only at crude prices is "myopic." Diesel prices have doubled from pre-war levels, he said, due largely to the Iran war and in part to attacks on refineries in Russia.

Europe considers rationing

The gas picture is the sharper one. Gas prices have risen 140% since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran, according to Euronews.

EU gas storage stood at 74% as of Oct. 20, the lowest since 2011, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. The bloc's gas transmission operators have warned of a shortfall of 12% to 15% of demand if a severe cold snap hits this winter.

EU energy ministers meet on Oct. 29 to discuss possible EU-wide measures to reduce consumption. The proposal comes from Ireland, which holds the rotating Council presidency. The Council document asks "what, if any, demand reduction measures should be considered at EU level?" It does not propose specific cuts, and it does not establish that ministers have agreed to any.

The Irish presidency warns that even if the conflict ends, the impact on oil markets could last for months and the consequences for gas supplies could be felt for years.

The economy so far

The European Central Bank said in a blog post on Oct. 21 that the euro area economy has proved resilient. Excluding volatile Irish data, real GDP in the second quarter of 2026 was 0.6% above its level in the fourth quarter of 2025. Growth has held at around 0.3% in each of the last four quarters.

The ECB's authors attribute that to decreased vulnerability to energy shocks, policy support and the global AI upswing. They describe the challenge posed by the events of early 2026 as "still ongoing."

What comes next

The Jackdaw approval settles a single gasfield. Rosebank is the harder test: the Guardian's reporting describes a chancellor who expects oil and gas revenue on one side and an energy secretary leaning against the field on the other, with Burnham expected to make the final call if they conflict. A decision is due before year-end.

EU energy ministers take up the demand-cut question on Oct. 29.