Trump Threatens to Double Mexico Tariffs Unless It Stops Migrant Caravan Heading North

Since Democrats took the House and Senate in the Nov. 3 midterms, President Donald Trump has been fighting a narrative of defeat. On Thursday, Nov. 12, he took it to the border and to Mexico City.

In a Truth Social post, Trump wrote: "MEXICO MUST STOP THEM, NOW, and if they do not do so, the Tariffs on Mexico will be IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED." He added that Mexico, the governor of Texas, Border Patrol and ICE "HAVE BEEN SO INFORMED. There will be no leniency!"

What Trump said, and what is on the road

Trump framed the post around the election. "With the perceived loss by the Republicans in the Midterms - I WAS NOT ON THE BALLOT - the INVASION of our Country is taking place again," he wrote. He claimed many people in the caravans are those "various countries don't want."

The post does not name a country that is sending migrants, and no source in the story backs that claim.

The group that has been identified is an estimated 1,500 people, mostly from Central America. They left Tapachula, near the Guatemala border, on Tuesday, Nov. 10. Reuters reported that many are families, including parents with young children. The group calls itself "God With Us" and plans first to reach Mexico City, more than 1,000 kilometers away.

Trump wrote of "caravans" in the plural. The one group identified is the Tapachula march.

The migrants told reporters they hope the Democratic midterm win could eventually open a path to live and work in the United States. Analysts cited by India Today cautioned that major policy changes are unlikely while Trump remains president.

The tariff threat has no deadline and a legal question

Trump did not say how soon Mexico would have to act. Bloomberg reported it is uncertain whether he can lawfully double the levies, given a Supreme Court ruling earlier this year that limited his tariff powers.

The Mexican government had not issued a statement on the threat as of Thursday morning. Mexico's peso weakened after the post, falling to its lowest point of the trading session, according to Quartz.

The threat lands in the middle of existing talks. Mexico has been negotiating with the administration over tariffs on key sectors and over keeping Chinese goods from being rerouted through Mexico into the U.S. market. This week Mexico said it removed about 1,100 steel mills from an approved registry after identifying firms that did not exist.

About 80 percent of Mexican exports to the U.S. already enter tariff-free under existing trade arrangements, according to Reuters. It is not clear which goods or what share of trade a doubled tariff would cover.

Midterm fallout reaches the border states

Trump called the result a "perceived loss." Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, and HuffPost reported they also flipped Texas blue for the first time in more than 30 years. Texas Democrat Gina Hinojosa unseated Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, and Trump's post took a swipe at "THE VERY LIBERAL NEW GOVERNOR OF TEXAS."

HuffPost also reported that Trump earlier this week questioned without evidence whether the election was "honest" and blamed voting machines. That came after he told The New York Times on election night that he was "absolutely willing" to accept the outcome. No evidence supporting his claim has been presented.

The immigration fight now also runs through state attorneys general. Texas AG-elect Nathan Johnson, a Democrat, could drop the state's defense of SB4, the Republican-backed law that lets state authorities arrest and prosecute people suspected of crossing the border illegally. The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals allowed that law to take effect in April while a challenge proceeds.

Ken Paxton, who did not seek re-election as AG and lost a bid for the U.S. Senate, stays in office until Johnson is sworn in on Jan. 1, 2027.

Iowa faces a similar situation. The Supreme Court is weighing whether to take Iowa's appeal of a ruling that blocked a state law letting officials arrest and prosecute people in the country illegally. Iowa's Democratic AG-elect, Nate Willems, could decline to defend that law if the justices take the case.

Earlier this month Trump acknowledged that his immigration enforcement might have come off as "too tough" for voters. His Thursday post shows no softening toward the border itself.

What to watch

The first test is whether Mexico moves to stop or break up the Tapachula march before it gets far, and whether it answers the tariff threat publicly. The second is whether Trump issues a formal order doubling tariffs, which would put the legal question about his authority in front of courts. The third arrives Jan. 1, 2027, when Johnson takes office and decides whether Texas keeps defending SB4.