Trump Says U.S. 'May Do Another Little Epic Fury' on Iran, Days After White House Ruled Out Strikes Before Nov. 3

Since the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran on Feb. 28, the war has settled into a blockade-and-sanctions standoff, and this week the question became whether shooting resumes before or after the midterms. Friday gave two conflicting signals.

"We may do another little Epic Fury, or they'll agree," Trump told a crowd at Florida Gulf Coast University's Alico Arena in Fort Myers on Oct. 23. He did not say when, or what a "little" version would involve.

"If they're smart, they'll just say, 'Let's get down to business.' But, you know, I doubt they'll do that because perhaps they're not smart," he added.

A pledge, a weekend warning, and a denial

Earlier this month Trump wrote on Truth Social that the U.S. "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd." White House spokesperson Anna Kelly repeated on Thursday that the U.S. would not resume attacks before the vote, though officials said military options remain available.

Then on Friday, U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and special envoy Tom Barrack was asked by commentator Mario Nawfal whether a strike could come this weekend. "Absolutely," Barrack said. He added that Trump "is open and available and accessible to a deal" and that talks had run "for months and months and months."

Barrack also said Trump is not seeking regime change but a "rebalancing" with "no hostages, no threats." Barrack is the administration's point man on Syria and is not in a direct Iran policy role.

On a Florida runway, a reporter asked Trump whether he had abandoned the hold-off. "That was my ambassador? He's a pretty powerful man, I guess. If that's the case, I don't know anything about that," Trump said. Hours later, at the rally, he floated another strike.

Trump's rally line does not itself contradict the pledge, since he gave no date. It does leave the pledge looking less firm than the White House presented it on Thursday.

The "finish it off or let it wither" choice

Earlier Friday, Trump told reporters the U.S. controls the Strait of Hormuz. "The question is, do we want to finish it off, or do we just want to let it wither? Because we're getting everything we want," he said. He also said: "We could take the whole country. We could take all of the oil."

On Thursday he said U.S. forces had "knocked the hell out of" Iran and might go "a little bit further." At the rally he said the U.S. had defeated Tehran "militarily, financially, and otherwise" and that oil prices "will soon plummet."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the economic campaign is working. "Oil exports from the Persian Gulf are roaring back and have surpassed pre-conflict levels," he wrote Friday. He credited the administration's Operation Economic Outcast with depleting Iran's shadow tanker fleet, emptying its main oil terminal and exhausting its offshore reserves. "We are no longer managing the Iranian threat. We are ending it," he said.

What the planning reportedly looks like

The New York Times reported Thursday, citing U.S. officials and people briefed on the matter, that both the U.S. and Israeli militaries have drawn up plans for short, intense strikes after the midterms. The likely targets, per the Times, are Iranian energy infrastructure, nuclear sites and weapons. The paper also reported that earlier this month Washington and Jerusalem came close to ordering new strikes before Trump pulled back at the last minute.

The Atlantic reported Thursday that Bessent favors sustained economic pressure while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is urging another round of strikes aimed at toppling the regime. The magazine said the administration is weighing a combination, with several days of strikes after Nov. 3. The White House has not publicly confirmed either report.

On Oct. 16, Trump told Newsmax that Washington is weighing strikes on Iran's Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site if operations resume.

The Financial Times reported that U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz, in an interview, said Washington is preparing for a prolonged confrontation and can sustain the blockade, while Waltz disputed the paper's characterization of his remarks.

Iran's response and the threat to U.S. personnel

Iran's reaction, as relayed by Indian press, was "don't play with fire." Axios reported that a new U.S. intelligence memo addressed to Secretary of State Marco Rubio found Iran has "substantially increased" efforts to target American diplomats and officials in the Middle East, with plots reaching "advanced stages." U.S. officials also worry that Iran-backed Houthi forces could widen attacks beyond Saudi Arabia.

The State Department recently cut staffing at U.S. embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Critics of the war reject its legal basis outright. Common Dreams, which opposes the conflict, calls it an illegal war launched "in violation of the US Constitution and international law." The administration has not conceded that point in any of the statements above.

Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, said Epic Fury involved more than 50,000 U.S. service members and strikes on about 13,500 targets. A "little" repeat is relative.

The midterms are set for Nov. 3, and fuel prices are weighing on the campaign, as the Jerusalem Post noted. Ynet reported that the war has severely damaged Trump's popularity in the United States, including among Republican voters. Barrack's weekend warning is the first test: if no strike comes by Nov. 3, the White House pledge stands intact, and the post-election planning the Times describes becomes the next fork.