Trump Administration Weighs Russia Business Deals Before Ukraine War Ends, NYT Reports

Since President Trump and Vladimir Putin held an hourlong phone call on September 8, following envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner's trips to Moscow and Kyiv September 5 through 7, the diplomatic track has moved from talk to a concrete policy question: should Washington offer Moscow business deals before the shooting stops.

The New York Times reports, citing two people familiar with the negotiations, that the White House is now considering signing economic agreements with Russia without requiring an end to the war first. A U.S. official told the Times such deals would "show that the United States is serious about a reset relationship with Russia," and could help "convince anti-American hawks around Mr. Putin" that Trump genuinely wants better ties.

Last year Trump said economic cooperation with Russia would wait "until we get the war settled," a line he repeated ahead of his Alaska meeting with Putin. No specific deals have been disclosed. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said after the Witkoff-Kushner Moscow meeting that the two sides discussed "economic issues and potential major mutually beneficial Russian-American projects," according to Interfax and reported by the Epoch Times.

Sanctions Bill Lands on Trump's Desk

While envoys explore incentives, Congress moved the other direction. The House passed a Russia sanctions bill 262 to 159 on September 16, after Senate passage in August, according to Politis and corroborated by Inbox.lv News. The bill lets Trump impose tariffs up to 100 percent on countries buying the most Russian oil or gas, and adds sanctions on Russian officials, banks and the so-called shadow fleet of tankers. It now awaits Trump's signature.

Representative Michael McCaul, the Texas Republican who backed the bill, said it "will cripple Russia's war machine and finally bring Putin to the negotiating table." Politis reports the legislation was championed by Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina until his death in July. Senator Darline Graham, who replaced her brother in his Senate seat, said the bill would "increase the president's negotiating leverage."

So Washington is running two tracks simultaneously: tightening the economic screws with one hand while dangling investment carrots with the other. Whether that's coherent strategy or contradictory signaling is genuinely unresolved.

The Sticking Point Is Donetsk

According to Politis, which cites a person familiar with the talks and a U.S. official, Putin told Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow that Russian troops would capture all of Donbas within months and that Russia was ready to hammer Ukraine's power grid through winter. Kushner reportedly pushed back: "With all due respect, you told us exactly that a year ago. What are the chances we come back here in another year and you are again saying the same thing? Maybe we don't lose a year?"

Ukraine has shown no willingness to withdraw from the unoccupied part of Donetsk Oblast that Putin says he must control before any deal, and the war has now run more than four years without either side conceding that ground.

The Case for Incentives, and the Case Against

Supporters of the deals-first approach argue, per the Times' sourcing, that offering Russia's business elite a stake in a reset relationship could build internal pressure on Putin that sanctions alone haven't produced after years of trying. Sanctions have squeezed Russia's economy without ending the war, so trying a different lever isn't unreasonable on its face.

But Congress, Kyiv and European allies favor the opposite bet, according to Politis, arguing only heightened economic and military pressure will move Putin. CNN's analysis notes that after Witkoff and Kushner left Kyiv, Russian missiles and drones ended a three-day lull with strikes that killed five people, and cited Western intelligence estimates that Russia is losing roughly 40,000 troops a month. A Russian drone also breached Moldovan airspace the same week, delaying President Volodymyr Zelensky's flight to Norway; Moldova's U.S. ambassador, Vladislav Kulminski, told CNN's Jim Sciutto the incursion was likely "not an accident."

CNN's Trump quote has the president telling reporters Putin "is wanting to make a deal," while Kushner has talked publicly about finding a "win-win" for both Putin and Zelensky. Zelensky, for his part, said he backs restarting negotiations even if he'd prefer a different format, saying "it is worse when there are no formats of negotiations at all."

None of the sources identify what specific projects Washington might offer Moscow, whether energy, Arctic development, or something else Russia has floated for years. Trump has not said whether he will sign the sanctions bill on a specific date, and it remains unclear whether he intends to actually use the 100 percent tariff authority against major buyers of Russian oil once it's law.