Three New Polls Put Trump's Approval at Second-Term Lows as Democrats Lead Midterm Generic Ballot

Since the Iran war pushed diesel to a record $6.05 a gallon and oil past $100 a barrel, voter anger over prices has hardened into the defining fact of the 2026 midterm campaign. Three separate national polls released this week, from NBC News, the New York Times/Siena, and Fox News, all landed on the same conclusion: President Trump's approval rating is stuck near its second-term low, and voters increasingly blame him for the economy.

The Numbers, Side by Side

The NBC News poll, conducted Sept. 11-15 with 1,000 registered voters, put Trump's approval at 41%, a second-term low in that survey. Fifty-five percent of voters said his policies have hurt the economy, up from 48% in March, according to NBC News. Democrats led the generic congressional ballot 50%-45%, a 5-point edge that's smaller than the 12-point lead Democrats held at the same point in 2018, before their House wave.

The New York Times/Siena poll found Trump's approval at 38% among likely voters, with Democrats ahead by nearly 9 points on the generic ballot, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer's reporting on the survey. That poll marked the first time in Trump's second term that a majority of voters, 52%, said they "strongly" disapproved of him.

The Fox News poll, fielded Sept. 11-14 among 1,211 registered voters, put Trump's approval at 39% and disapproval at 61%, tied for his second-term low in Fox's own polling, according to Yahoo News. Sixty-three percent of respondents said the Trump administration has made the economy worse, including 26% of Republicans and 73% of independents.

What's Actually Driving It

All three surveys point to the same culprits: gas prices, healthcare costs, and tariffs. The Fox poll found 61% call gas prices a major problem, up from 48% two years ago, and 64% say tariffs are hurting the economy, up from 57% last summer. Only 28% of voters in the Times/Siena poll approved of Trump's handling of affordability specifically.

That number holds even among Trump's most loyal voters. White voters without college degrees, a core part of his coalition, disapproved of his handling of the cost of living by 21 points in the Times/Siena poll.

Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who co-directs the Fox News poll, told Fox News Digital that "time is running out for the administration and its supporters to convince voters that things are improving." Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who worked on the NBC survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, said Trump "has achieved his goal of making this election about him at a historic level," but that cuts against him because more voters say their vote is meant as opposition to Trump than at any point in three decades of NBC polling before a midterm.

The Counterargument: The Jobs Numbers Are Real

The strongest case Trump and Republicans have is that the polling doesn't match the hard economic data. Fox News' own Power Rankings column noted that the U.S. added 162,000 jobs last month, about triple what economists expected, and unemployment held steady at 4.1%. The stock market has kept climbing despite volatility tied to Iran and tariffs. The disconnect between sentiment and the labor market is real, and it's the argument Republican candidates are leaning on heading into November.

Democrats haven't converted economic frustration into enthusiasm for themselves. The Fox poll found voters still view the Democratic Party more negatively than the GOP on favorability, and USA Today reported that 50% of voters hold a negative view of Democrats compared with 49% for the GOP. Voters are punishing Trump without necessarily embracing the alternative.

Why the Map Still Favors the GOP

Despite the numbers, Republican pollster Bill McInturff pointed to political geography as the party's best defense. Democrats would need to flip Senate seats in Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and North Carolina, states Trump carried by double digits in 2024, to win control of the chamber. Even the Times/Siena poll's near 9-point national edge for Democrats wouldn't guarantee those flips, and gerrymandered House maps in several states limit how many seats are genuinely competitive.

One detail ties directly into the AI-data-center fight already roiling Republican candidates: the Fox poll found voters trust Democrats over Republicans on handling large AI data centers by 14 points, one of the widest margins on any issue tested. That tracks with the GOP base revolt already underway in states hosting new data center projects.

The next data point comes in about six weeks. Election Day is Nov. 3, 2026, and both parties will be watching whether the jobs report keeps beating expectations, or whether gas prices and grocery bills keep climbing before voters decide whether their ballot is a message about Trump himself.