Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania Vote as AfD Momentum Threatens Chancellor Merz

Polls opened at 8am local time Sunday in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, with results and exit polls expected around 6pm local time (4pm GMT), according to Al Jazeera and the outlet ua.news. About 2.5 million people are eligible to vote in Berlin and nearly 1.3 million in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. For the first time in both states, 16- and 17-year-olds can cast ballots, ua.news reported.

The vote comes two weeks after the Alternative for Germany (AfD) delivered what Al Jazeera and The Guardian both called a seismic result in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, falling just short of an outright parliamentary majority. Pre-election polling from the final ZDF Politbarometer, cited by the Epoch Times, had put the AfD as high as 41% there, nearly double its 2021 showing. No source in this reporting confirms the exact final certified percentage, but multiple outlets agree the AfD came within reach of becoming the first party outside the CDU or SPD to govern a German state alone since 1949.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government has felt the pressure. His approval rating has cratered, though sources differ on the exact number. The Guardian puts it at 10%, while Al Jazeera, ua.news and the outlet Europe Says all cite 14%. Merz, 70, took office 16 months ago promising to revive an economy that has barely grown in years. According to Europe Says, citing AFP, he canceled a planned appearance at the UN General Assembly in New York and scheduled a CDU crisis meeting to manage the political fallout from Sunday's results.

The Numbers in Play

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the real contest is between SPD state premier Manuela Schwesig and AfD candidate Leif-Erik Holm, a former radio presenter. Public broadcaster ZDF polling cited by Al Jazeera and Europe Says had the AfD at 36-37% against the SPD's 33-37%. Merz's CDU was polling at just 6-7%, perilously close to the 5% threshold required to hold any seats at all, down sharply from the 13.3% it won there in 2021, according to ua.news.

In Berlin, the CDU is fighting a tight race against the far-left Die Linke, which The Guardian reports has campaigned on expropriating corporate landlords to address a housing crisis in a city where 85% of residents rent and advertised rents have roughly doubled since 2014. Berlin will need another 211,000 homes by 2040, according to Deutsche Welle figures cited by ua.news. The AfD sits in third or fourth place in Berlin polling but is not considered a realistic threat to win there, per The Guardian and Breitbart's report via the Associated Press.

A Party on the Rise, and the Firewall Debate

AfD's national profile has grown alongside its regional gains. Fox News noted the party was "famously backed by Elon Musk" in last year's national election and has been described by Germany's domestic intelligence service as a right-wing extremist concern, according to Fox's reporting. Daniel Schatz, a foreign policy expert with a doctorate from Berlin's Humboldt University, told Fox News the AfD has become "a powerful vehicle for voter anger at Germany's political establishment," built on tighter immigration policy, national identity, and rejection of green-energy mandates.

Janek Treiber, a political science researcher at Dresden University of Technology, told Fox News that even a limited AfD win carries outsized symbolic weight. It would mark the first time since 1990 that a party outside the CDU or SPD held real governing power in the former East. AfD's Saxony-Anhalt candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, ruled out serving as a junior coalition partner and told supporters that even a near-miss would eventually force new elections the party believes it can win outright with 50% or more, per the Epoch Times.

Germany's mainstream parties maintain what's widely called a political "firewall," refusing to form coalitions with the AfD regardless of its vote share. Critics of that approach, a position AfD figures like Anna Nguyen have voiced to the Epoch Times, argue that locking out a party millions of Germans just voted for is itself a democratic problem, not a solution. Defenders of the firewall, including CDU leaders like Saxony-Anhalt's Sven Schulze, have called an AfD government a threat that would "inflict indescribable damage" on the country. Whether the firewall holds if AfD's vote share keeps climbing toward 40% is a question neither side has had to fully answer yet.

What Happens Next

Merz has resisted calls to step down, telling an industry group, "I want to use these four years to lead the country out of this difficult period." But a CDU deputy local leader in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania has already called publicly for him to go, according to Breitbart's AP report, and speculation is mounting about successors. North Rhine-Westphalia governor Hendrik Wüst and Bavaria's Markus Söder are both named as possible replacements. Exit polls are due around 6pm local time Sunday, with full results to follow, and the immediate question is whether the CDU clears 5% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania at all, and whether Berlin's CDU can hold the mayor's office against Die Linke.