Tanker Attacks Near Hormuz Hit Weekly High Since Iran War Began as Brent Tops $100 and 30-Year Yield Reaches 5.70%

Since the US war with Iran began on Feb. 28, the Strait of Hormuz has been critical to oil prices. This week it is doing it again.

Attacks on oil, LNG and LPG tankers around the strait hit at least 12 in the week of Sept. 28 to Oct. 5. That is the highest weekly total since the war started, according to data from three maritime security sources cited by Reuters. The International Maritime Organization, the UN shipping agency, logged nine incidents for the same week. Maritime sources say the IMO is slower to verify and record incidents. Its closest comparable week was the one starting July 13, with eight.

The attacks

On Tuesday, India's foreign ministry said 12 crew members were injured when an unknown projectile hit the Panama-flagged oil tanker On Peace as it transited the strait.

UK Maritime Trade Operations said Tuesday there had been nine attacks so far this month. That is half the September total for the strait and the Gulf combined.

On Sunday, the US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Centre said Iran's Revolutionary Guards had kept up attacks, attempted attacks and harassment. That includes drone overflights, surveillance and hailing ships by VHF radio. "These actions continue to demonstrate Iran's intent to assert presence along key transit lanes and maintain pressure on transiting vessels," the JMIC said.

The counts differ by source. The Reuters figure covers a specific eight-day window and the UKMTO figure covers October to date. Both point the same way: up.

Washington's position

Rubio sees it differently. Speaking to reporters in Athens on Wednesday, he said Iran has "lost complete control" of the strait. "There's almost as much oil flowing out now as there was before this conflict began," he said.

The shipping data partly backs him. Gulf oil exporters exceeded pre-war levels for about half of September, according to shipping data reported Monday. The same reporting says attacks and logistical constraints cloud the outlook for sustained higher flows.

Both things are true at once. More oil is moving, and more ships are getting hit. Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said reports of increased flows have put some downward pressure on crude, but varying accounts of the scale of attacks have offset it. "The market remains highly sensitive to headlines and geopolitical risk," he said.

Markets

Brent was trading around $101.94 and WTI around $90.02 in early Wednesday trading. Both rose from Tuesday, when crude steadied and Wall Street closed at records. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to a record close, its first since Aug. 13 and its fourth straight gain, helped by a rush back into AI stocks. Nvidia pushed toward a $6 trillion market value.

That has reversed. S&P 500 futures were down about 0.4% near 7,844 before the open, and US stocks were lower in morning trading.

The bond market is moving harder than stocks. The 30-year Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 5.70% premarket, the highest since 2002. The 10-year was near 5.335%. AFP reported yields at fresh 24-year highs during the morning session.

Analysts at Briefing.com said rising yields and oil were "creating renewed pressure after stocks received some relief from both fronts to start the week." Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: "Oil prices remain above $100 a barrel and the inflation risks are clear to see."

Gold fell about 1% premarket to roughly $4,121 an ounce. Silver fell 1.9% to $60.21.

What governments are doing

The G7, working with the International Energy Agency, agreed last Friday to immediately release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from strategic reserves. The IEA's head said Wednesday that member countries stand ready to release more if needed and will prioritize diesel because supplies are tight.

The Treasury was scheduled to sell $39 billion of 10-year notes at 1 p.m. ET, a test of whether buyers still find these yields attractive. No result was available at the time of writing.

What comes next

The Federal Reserve is set to release minutes from its Sept. 16 meeting at 2 p.m. ET today. Those minutes will show how policymakers weighed oil-driven inflation risk at a time when the long end of the Treasury curve is at its highest in 24 years.

The open question is whether Rubio's flow numbers or the attack counts better describe the strait over the coming weeks. Weekly attack data from the maritime security sources and the IMO will answer it.