Some Anthropic Investors Discuss $1.5 Trillion IPO Valuation, Down From $2 Trillion, After Investor Day

Since Anthropic confidentially filed for an IPO in June and briefed investors on Oct. 14, the number attached to the offering has started to move: some investors who attended the event are now discussing a valuation of about $1.5 trillion, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the talks. Earlier expectations had been $2 trillion.

That is a 25% haircut. Nothing is final. The IPO is expected in November, and Anthropic has not announced a price range.

What changed at the investor day

Anthropic disclosed third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion, up from $11.6 billion in the second quarter. That is growth of roughly 45%.

The Financial Times, citing people familiar with the matter, put the sequential increase at 50% and reported that Anthropic said it has been profitable on an adjusted basis for two quarters and cash-flow positive for the latest one. Anthropic did not immediately respond to a MarketWatch request for comment.

The trend line is what spooked people. Revenue rose from $4.7 billion in the first quarter to $11.6 billion in the second, about 147%. Growth then fell to the mid-40s percent range.

Expectations had been set high. In a Tuesday note, Jefferies analyst Jeffrey Favuzza wrote that Wall Street was likely anticipating an annual revenue run rate of at least $80 billion, with hopes of topping $105 billion by year-end. Reuters reported in August that the run rate had passed $65 billion.

The cost side

The prospectus shows $4.6 billion in 2025 revenue against a $42 billion net loss and an operating loss of $8.06 billion. It also lists $7.33 billion in compute and infrastructure consumption in 2025, more than half of operating expenses.

Anthropic has committed at least $518 billion over the next decade to cloud services, computing and other infrastructure, according to Reuters. Jacob Krell of Suzu Labs said those figures describe a company scaling its cost base before it has shown the margins to pay for it.

The company's defense is in its own numbers: adjusted profit, positive cash flow in the latest quarter, and revenue that has more than tripled since the first quarter. Demand for Claude and its enterprise products drove that climb.

A rough market to list into

The valuation talk landed in a bad week. Hotter-than-expected September inflation data on Wednesday pushed up expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase at its meeting later this month. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted their biggest one-day drops since July. Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1.4% early Thursday.

CoreWeave shares and bonds also fell Thursday, Oct. 15, on concern about the industry's reliance on borrowed money. Samsung and SK Hynix were sharply lower in Korean trading, and the KOSPI has dropped more than 16% over five sessions.

Heath Terry, head of AI investment research at Citi, told CNN the IPO backdrop is shaky: "You've got rising rates. You've got the war in Iran. You've got the sort of shakier economy ex-AI."

Others have already pulled back. Oura delayed its debut, Holtec Nuclear suspended its offering, and data center developer SB Energy postponed its IPO in September. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told Fortune his company will not go public this year, citing "everything happening with safety."

The safety message and the pitch

Anthropic's prospectus devotes roughly 80 pages of a 261-page filing to risk, including language on catastrophic or existential risk from AI. CEO Dario Amodei recently called for pacing AI development, and tech leaders including Amodei signed a White House accord last week to "self-police" AI development.

Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives told CNBC the market reaction to Amodei's proposal was "pretty resoundingly negative." His argument: if Anthropic and OpenAI slowed down, "China would just accelerate and win," and he said there is "some regulatory capture going on." Amodei has said the third-party evaluator access Anthropic offered does not come at the cost of commercial advantage or the U.S. lead in AI.

What the number would mean

The Wall Street Journal reported Anthropic could raise as much as $100 billion at around a $2 trillion valuation. That would beat SpaceX, which raised roughly $86 billion in its June IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation.

A $1.5 trillion price would still rank among the largest listings ever. Whether the offering holds its November timing, and at what price, depends on how investors settle the question the investor day opened: whether growth in the mid-40s percent range supports a $518 billion spending plan.