Reported U.S. Ukraine Plan Would Have Kyiv Drop NATO Bid, Ease Russia Sanctions; Europeans Reject Frozen-Assets Idea

Since Steve Witkoff headed to St. Petersburg on Oct. 21 carrying proposals drawn up in Oslo, the contours of what Washington wants from a Ukraine settlement have started to leak. The picture is a lopsided one.

The Economist, citing Ukrainian officials, reports that a draft U.S. outline would require Ukraine to permanently give up its bid to join NATO. In exchange, Kyiv would be offered European Union membership and an investment package.

The outline also envisions a demilitarized zone in the Donbas. For Russia, it points to sanctions relief, business deals between Moscow and American companies, restored political ties with Washington, and a resumption of Russian gas supplies to Europe, including through Nord Stream.

The Trump administration has not confirmed any of this. Ukrainian media say only a draft outline has circulated and that Washington has not yet passed details to the Ukrainian side. Trilateral talks are expected sometime in November.

The frozen-assets proposal

A separate report from the Financial Times, citing four people familiar with the matter, adds a money piece. According to that report, Witkoff and Jared Kushner proposed on Oct. 10 in Miami that European countries unfreeze some Russian sovereign assets and move them into a special-purpose financial vehicle overseen by Washington.

The meeting included officials from Ukraine, France, Germany, the UK, the EU and NATO.

A U.S. official said the use of the frozen assets was discussed as part of a comprehensive peace deal. The official said the mechanisms for releasing the money and deciding where it would be spent are still under discussion. "Many ideas have been floated," the official said.

European delegates rejected it. European officials said they oppose giving up control of the assets or returning any part of them to Moscow. "They were told that this was just simply not going to happen," one source told the FT. Ukrainian delegates confirmed the issue had come up at earlier meetings with U.S. representatives.

Kyiv's worry

One Ukrainian official told The Economist that Kyiv fears U.S. representatives could pursue lucrative deals with Moscow before the war ends. That would let Russia collect economic and diplomatic benefits while the fighting continues.

Zelenskyy has voiced his frustration in an interview. "The way Trump talks about me, he needs to adopt that kind of rhetoric about Putin," he said. "Maybe they have a special relationship. Maybe something else. I can't tell you."

The White House has a different read on who is holding things up. Trump said Tuesday that he thinks "Russia would like to get it done," while expressing doubt that Zelenskyy wants to end the war. He also said the EU is getting "tired of spending" money on Ukraine. Of Russia, he said: "Russia is a big machine. They just keep grinding forward. They have an unlimited supply of people."

What Washington has already given

The sanctions piece is not just theoretical. Axios reported, citing a U.S. official, that Trump had already agreed to lift sanctions on Russian diesel sales and taken other steps welcomed by Moscow. The White House hope, per that official, is that Putin shows more willingness to compromise.

The pressure is running one direction on refineries too. A source with knowledge of the Oslo meeting told Axios that Kushner, joining virtually, again pressed Trump's demand that Ukraine halt strikes on Russian oil refineries.

The Washington Post's opinion section notes the distance Trump has traveled. He once derided Zelenskyy as a weakling with "no cards." He is now protesting Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries.

If the reported outline is accurate, Ukraine is being asked to make permanent concessions, on NATO and on territory in the Donbas. Russia is being offered near-term economic rewards. Ukraine's EU membership, the main thing on its side of the ledger, is not Washington's to deliver.

The gas component also depends on Europe. UNN, citing The Economist's reporting, notes that the United States cannot independently decide the fate of European energy markets, and that resuming Russian gas supplies contradicts European Union legislation. The Europeans' reported refusal on frozen assets is the clearest sign yet of how they may treat the rest of the package.

The administration's case is that everything is still on the table. It describes the assets discussion as one of many ideas under a comprehensive deal. It also says concessions like the diesel waiver are meant to draw Moscow into serious talks.

What is not on the table yet is a written proposal in Kyiv's hands. Until Washington hands over text, and the trilateral talks expected in November take place, the question is whether the U.S. will pursue Moscow-facing business and sanctions deals in parallel with the negotiation. Ukrainian officials told The Economist that is exactly what they fear.