Pakistan Seeks 24 LNG Cargoes for Winter as Qatari Supply Stays Disrupted

Pakistan is trying to buy its way through a winter gas squeeze. The Petroleum Division has asked the Cabinet Committee on Energy to approve a load management plan for November through February that calls for at least 24 liquefied natural gas cargoes. The plan awaits approval.

Of those, the division's summary says 12 would come from Qatar and 10 from the spot market. The government is expected to spend more than $1 billion on LNG this winter.

Where the cargoes would go

The plan allocates nine cargoes to power generation and 15 to domestic consumption, including two contingency cargoes. The division estimated that 24 cargoes are needed to meet winter demand across the Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited network.

The summary also anticipates "additional LNG procurement arrangements as uncertainty persists over supplies under existing contracts with Qatar Energy."

Pakistan normally receives an average of nine cargoes a month from Qatar under long-term government-to-government agreements. Under the winter plan it would get 12 across four months.

How supply broke down

The trouble dates to the US-Iran conflict that erupted in February. QatarEnergy declared force majeure in March after an Iranian attack on a major gas facility, and Qatar's export capacity has been severely curtailed from pre-conflict levels.

Masood Nabi, CEO of Pakistan LNG Limited, has said the problem is not gas availability but the impeded LNG shipments. That means Pakistan may have to buy extra spot cargoes at elevated prices.

Pakistan was exposed by design. Wood Mackenzie says the country sourced 99% of its 2025 LNG imports from Qatar, while Bangladesh imported over 70% of its LNG from Qatar. Nearly 90% of Qatari and UAE LNG shipped through the strait in 2025 was destined for Asia.

"Countries that had diversified their supply sources and established multiple pricing mechanisms came through this crisis in far better shape than those that had not," said Johnson Quadros, the firm's head of gas and LNG research.

The cost of the spot market

A senior energy ministry official told Arab News that spot rates range from $30 to $35 per mmbtu, against $12 to $15 per mmbtu under the Qatar contract. He estimated a single spot cargo could cost between $80 million and $100 million, compared with as much as $50 million under the long-term contract. He described the spot market as a last resort. The official document says the 10 spot cargoes would be bought at double the price at which LNG is imported from Qatar.

Wood Mackenzie estimates the strait closure cut Pakistan-bound LNG by up to 0.4 million tonnes a month from March to November 2026. Pakistan responded by curtailing demand, switching fuels and releasing withheld domestic gas. The firm puts the resulting gas demand destruction at over 2.5 million tonnes.

Pakistan re-entered the spot market in April 2026 after a two-year absence. High spot prices limited its success, according to the firm.

There is a second bill running in the background. Pakistan remains liable for daily FSRU take-or-pay charges regardless of cargo arrivals. So it pays for import infrastructure it can't fill, and then pays spot prices to fill it.

Muhammad Waqas Ghani of JS Global Capital said higher global prices and tight availability would make the spot approach expensive, and agreed that a higher import bill would widen the current account deficit. Wood Mackenzie has cut its Pakistan LNG demand forecast to 3.7 million tonnes for 2027, down from 6.6 million tonnes in 2025. It says committed volumes are expected to exceed demand through 2030.

So Pakistan is both short of gas this winter and over-contracted in the longer run.

A regional hit

The damage isn't confined to Pakistan. Wood Mackenzie says South Asian LNG demand, once projected to grow 2.7 million tonnes, or 7%, in 2026, is now expected to decline by around 6 million tonnes. In Bangladesh, gas shortages triggered prolonged power outages and drove greater reliance on coal. Petrobangla procured spot cargoes from Gunvor and Vitol for March delivery at $23 to $28 per mmbtu.

Crude is recovering faster than gas

Oil markets have been sending mixed signals. The Wall Street Journal reported that crude is moving through the strait at about 76% of prewar levels, with refined products making up only 11% of cargoes. JPMorgan analysts said the crude market has "largely normalized even as refined product supplies remain constrained." Brent was recently trading around $105 to $106 a barrel.

None of that has solved Pakistan's LNG problem. Qatar's emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, said government revenue fell 42% in the first half of 2026, largely because of the war.

The diplomatic picture is unsettled. President Trump announced that the United States will not launch military strikes against Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. Houthi attacks on Saudi targets are continuing, and Iran's top security official has threatened to strike regional infrastructure if war resumes.

What comes next

The Cabinet Committee on Energy has to decide whether to sign off on the plan. If it does, the government will be bidding for spot cargoes in a market where Qatari supply is the very thing in doubt.

Whether Qatar can deliver its 12 contracted cargoes between November and February is the open question the plan itself flags.