OPEC+ Finishes Restoring 1.65 Million Barrels a Day, Bigger 2022 Cuts Still Standing

OPEC+ has finished what it started months ago: putting back all the oil it voluntarily pulled off the market in 2023.

The group's seven core members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, agreed Sunday during a virtual meeting to raise output quotas by another 188,000 barrels per day starting in September, according to Energy Connects. That's the sixth straight monthly increase and it completes the phased unwind of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cut those same countries put in place in April 2023.

Kuwait's own output has been climbing as its share of that restoration lands, according to OilPrice.com, one piece of a broader trend across the seven producers now back at their pre-2023 production levels.

A bigger chunk of supply stays locked up, though. A separate 2 million bpd cut dating to 2022, spread across most of OPEC+'s 21 members, remains in effect and is currently scheduled to run through the end of 2026, according to both Forbes and Energy Connects. Forbes, citing the group's own statements, tied that decision directly to "ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran" and general price volatility. So this isn't a full return to pre-cut production. It's the end of one layer, with a much larger layer still standing.

The Cuts Aren't Translating Into Barrels On The Water

OPEC+'s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee flagged that attacks on energy infrastructure and maritime shipping routes are gumming up the supply increases the group has already approved, according to Energy Connects. The JMMC's own language, quoted by Energy Connects, said "restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and takes a long time, thereby affecting overall supply availability."

Translation: OPEC+ can vote to raise output all it wants, but if export terminals in the Gulf, Russia or Kazakhstan are getting hit by regional conflict, the oil doesn't reach buyers regardless of what the quota chart says. This is a real constraint, and it explains why the headline production number and actual global supply keep diverging.

UAE Already Walked Away

The United Arab Emirates was part of the original 2023 voluntary-cut coalition. It left OPEC+ (and OPEC itself) back in May, according to Forbes. Forbes noted there's been "little comment" from OPEC+ since on what that departure means for the group's cohesion going forward. One of the Gulf's most productive members is now setting its own course outside the cartel's framework, and nobody in the group has said much publicly about how that changes the math for future quota decisions.

What Comes Next

Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, told Energy Connects that finishing the restoration program raises the odds OPEC+ pauses rather than pushes further increases. "OPEC+ has finished unwinding its voluntary cuts," Leon said. "The next challenge is managing the surplus that could emerge as export flows normalise. Having completed the restoration campaign, OPEC+ has little incentive to rush into further supply changes. Our base case is a fourth-quarter pause while the group prepares for the 2027 quota negotiations."

That's an analyst's forecast, not a locked-in OPEC+ decision. The group's next scheduled meeting for these seven producers is September 6, according to Energy Connects, where they'll review market conditions and decide whether to keep adding barrels or hold steady.

The JMMC also reviewed May and June production data and found "overall conformity" among OPEC and non-OPEC countries under the Declaration of Cooperation, per its own statement relayed by Energy Connects. In plain terms, most members are sticking to their assigned quotas, at least on paper.

Oil prices reflect all this uncertainty. WTI crude was down nearly 6% and Brent down almost 5% in recent trading, according to OilPrice.com pricing data, with heating oil and gasoline futures also sliding. Markets are pricing in the restored supply against the backdrop of a Middle East still simmering with the kind of infrastructure attacks the JMMC itself flagged as a supply risk.

The open question heading into September 6 is whether OPEC+ pauses as Rystad's Leon expects, or keeps nudging output higher into a market that may already be looking at a surplus once disrupted exports eventually get back online.