Oil Majors Post Record Third-Quarter Profits With Brent Near $113 as EU Ministers Hold Off on Windfall Tax

Since the U.S.-Iran conflict began on February 28, Brent crude has climbed from roughly $70 a barrel to about $113. The third-quarter earnings season now shows who has collected the most.

The earnings

ExxonMobil earned $15.4 billion, according to NPR, more than double its result a year earlier. Shell earned $10.81 billion, beating the $10.33 billion analysts expected and nearly doubling the $5.43 billion it posted in 2025. Chevron reported $9.9 billion, up 180%.

TotalEnergies reported adjusted net income of $9.1 billion for July through September, against an $8.3 billion estimate and about $4 billion a year earlier. BP's net income hit $8.46 billion, its highest since 2008.

Refiners did even better by comparison. Valero's third-quarter profit rose more than sixfold to $6.83 billion. Phillips 66 reported record net income of $5.62 billion, up from $133 million a year earlier.

The New York Times estimated that 51 large U.S. oil and gas companies may have earned more than $130 billion from April through September. Those same companies earned less than $47 billion in the same months of 2025, according to the Times estimate. S&P Global Market Intelligence put the combined windfall at $92 billion.

The numbers are big, but they are not without precedent. The Times noted the totals are generally below 2022, when oil also traded near $100. The average price from April through September this year was about $90.

Where the money is going

Most of it is going back to shareholders, not into the ground. Executives said on their earnings calls that a good chunk of profit is funding dividends and buybacks. Shell's buyback was among its largest ever, and Exxon announced its highest quarterly dividend on record.

A tally of the five majors (Exxon, Chevron, BP, Shell and TotalEnergies) put combined buybacks at $12.3 billion and net debt at $117 billion, down from the first quarter. The same tally put their combined third-quarter profit at about $56 billion.

Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, said the companies are waiting. "This is a period where the high prices are driven more by geopolitical events than anything else," he said. "You put the money in the bank and watch to see what happens as we move into 2027."

Morningstar analyst Allen Good warned that fuel demand will eventually decline and new refineries take years to build, so current refining margins are unlikely to last.

The cost to drivers

Gasoline costs about $1.20 more per gallon than a year ago, according to AAA. Diesel hit a record in September.

Brown University's Climate Solutions Lab estimates the war has added more than $1,150 to the average U.S. household's fuel costs since February 28. The Times estimate puts Americans' additional spending on gasoline and diesel at $150 billion.

The disruption is physical. The monitoring group ACLED counted at least 172 Iranian and Iranian-backed attacks on non-military infrastructure in six Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Iran has effectively restricted most ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States responded with a naval blockade on Iranian oil and gas.

Europe weighs a windfall tax

A report commissioned by Greenpeace Germany estimates oil companies earned €36 billion in additional margins on EU diesel and petrol sales between March 1 and October 19. That works out to €154.4 million a day, with diesel accounting for €28.2 billion and petrol for nearly €7.8 billion.

The report is an advocacy estimate built on the gap between crude prices and net fuel prices. It found profits were highest at the crude production stage, where costs sit far below international prices.

Member states are calling for an EU-wide tax on these profits. Energy ministers discussed bill-cutting measures on October 29 and reached no decision on the tax.

The industry rejects the profiteering charge. It says its revenues rose because crude prices rose.

Noah Gordon of the European Council on Foreign Relations noted that oil, gas and coal make up nearly 60% of EU final energy consumption, and the bloc produces hardly any of it. Ben McWilliams of Bruegel said road transport is still dominated by petrol and diesel and home heating by natural gas, which leaves consumers few alternatives.

A different diagnosis comes from commentator Mike Fredenburg in the Epoch Times. He argues that Western sanctions on Russian oil, in place since 2022, left Europe more dependent on Middle Eastern supply, which is now under attack by Iran and the Houthis. He says that dependence has raised costs for both European and American consumers. That is his argument, and it is separate from the Greenpeace estimate.

What comes next

Rabobank strategist Florence Schmit says energy prices may stay high next year as long as uncertainty over the war's duration persists. The World Bank forecasts commodity prices will rise 23% this year.

For now, the companies are holding cash and the EU has no decision on a windfall tax.