NOAA Sees El Niño Easing Southeast Drought This Fall as Virginia Farmers Still Wait on Relief

A Wetter Fall Is Coming, But Not Everywhere at Once

El Niño is strengthening toward what NOAA calls "very strong" or "super" status this fall, and that's expected to reshuffle drought conditions across the country between September and November 2026, according to a NOAA ENSO advisory reported by WMC in Memphis.

The pattern points to wetter than average conditions across parts of the Rockies and the Southeast, and drier than average conditions along the far northern tier of the country. Meaningful drought improvement is expected across most of the Rockies and Southwest this fall, while a stretch running from Washington state to the Northern Plains is likely to see drought develop or get worse.

Most of the East Coast should see drought conditions improve this fall, per the advisory, though parts of Maine and New Hampshire could see new drought develop. The Mid-South, including the Memphis area, sits in a rougher spot: NOAA expects conditions there to get worse before they get better. By winter, the wetter pattern is expected to settle into the southern tier of the U.S., with drier conditions farther north.

Virginia Just Got Its First Good News Since April

That national outlook lines up with what's already starting to happen in Virginia. The state's Drought Monitoring Task Force lifted its drought advisory for most of Southwest Virginia this month, covering Buchanan, Dickenson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington and Wise counties, plus the cities of Bristol and Norton, according to the Daily Signal.

No part of the Commonwealth has been rated "normal" for drought status since April 16, 2026. The rest of Virginia is still under drought conditions.

August brought sustained rain to much of the state, but the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality says it hasn't been enough to rebuild groundwater after nearly a year of below-average rainfall. Stream, river and pond levels remain low across much of Virginia, the agency reported.

The damage is showing up in the fields. DEQ says the corn crop in the state's Northern Valley region is stunted, and tobacco in the Southside region is running about a month behind on maturity, per the Daily Signal.

Aid Is Available, but the Website Went Down First

More than 160 Virginia counties and localities now qualify for federal drought disaster relief through the USDA's Farm Service Agency, after enduring either eight straight weeks of drought or extreme-to-exceptional drought conditions this summer, the Daily Signal reported.

The Small Business Administration made low-interest disaster loans available to farmers and organizations that suffered economic losses tied to the drought that began September 16, 2025, with the application window closing soon.

Farmers in 43 primary natural disaster counties and 61 adjoining counties can seek USDA aid tied to an April hard freeze that damaged crops.

The timing got awkward this month when the Virginia Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services' website went down, temporarily cutting off access to drought recovery information. A department spokesperson told the Daily Signal on a Friday morning that the site had been down overnight and was back up, with the drought resources page functioning again.

Virginia Beach's director of agriculture, David Trimmer, told WVEC this month that outside help matters given how much the industry carries. "It's always good to have outside assistance if need be, and agriculture is the number one private industry in the state of Virginia, it plays a major part," Trimmer said.

Trump's Beef Tariff Move Runs Into a Governor's Pushback

While Virginia farmers deal with drought-damaged crops, President Donald Trump announced a separate move aimed at lowering consumer beef prices: lifting tariffs on 300,000 metric tons of imported beef, according to the Daily Signal.

More imported beef competing in the U.S. market should put downward pressure on prices for shoppers who've watched beef costs climb.

Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger warned the proposal could hurt the state's own beef industry, according to the Daily Signal, though the report did not detail the specifics of her objection beyond that warning. Cattle producers already squeezed by drought-thinned pastures and low pond levels would be the ones absorbing any price pressure from a flood of cheaper imports, which is the concern a rancher or state agriculture official would reasonably raise.

Whether cheaper imported beef actually reaches consumers in lower grocery prices, or mainly squeezes domestic producers on price without moving the retail number much, remains unclear. No specific timeline for implementing the tariff change, and no economic analysis quantifying the impact on Virginia producers, has been reported.

What's Next

NOAA's forecast suggests Virginia and the broader Southeast should keep trending toward relief through the fall, with a wetter pattern expected to hold through winter in the southern U.S. Whether that arrives fast enough to save the Northern Valley corn crop or get Southside tobacco back on schedule remains to be seen. Virginia's Drought Monitoring Task Force will keep meeting to track it county by county.