Lula Tells UN America Isn't Boss of Latin America, Four Days Before Brazil's Election Vote

Since Lula opened this year's UN General Assembly session with his traditional first speaking slot, the fight over who controls Latin America's largest democracy has moved from New York back to Brasília, where Brazilians vote October 4 in a presidential race too close to call.

Lula told the UN that "Brazil doesn't fit in anyone's backyard," according to Breitbart, criticizing tariffs as "weapons of coercion and blackmail" and rejecting what he called America's "aircraft carriers patrolling our waters." He never said Trump's name. He didn't have to.

The Trump administration imposed heavy trade duties on Brazilian exports in July 2025, according to Brookings, in response to what it called the Brazilian judiciary's "witch hunt" against former President Jair Bolsonaro. Washington also sanctioned Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the judge who prosecuted Bolsonaro, revoked visas for several justices, and hosted Flávio Bolsonaro at the White House in May, per Brookings.

A Dead-Heat Election, Four Days Out

Datafolha polling cited by The Irish Times has Lula at 40 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 36 percent heading into the first round. If neither candidate clears a majority among 13 contenders, the top two go to an October 25 runoff, where Datafolha shows Lula edging Flávio 47 to 45, inside the margin of error.

Both men are deeply disliked. Americas Society/Council of the Americas reports both candidates carry rejection rates around 50 percent, and more than 70 percent of Brazilians say the country is exhausted by political polarization.

Corruption, not security, has become the closing issue. Investigations into banker Daniel Vorcaro have turned up alleged financial links to both the Lula and Bolsonaro campaigns, according to Americas Society/Council of the Americas, and the scandal has reached Justice Moraes himself, the same judge Trump sanctioned over Bolsonaro's prosecution.

Jair Bolsonaro isn't on the ballot. He's serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest, according to Brookings, for conspiring to stay in power after losing to Lula in 2022. His son Flávio is running in his place, campaigning on avenging that conviction.

The Economic Squeeze

Lula's path to a fourth term runs through voters like Silvana Santiago da Silva, a 41-year-old street cleaner in São Paulo profiled by The Irish Times. She credits Lula's Bolsa Família cash-transfer program with getting her daughter through school and into a teaching job. But she says she may not vote for Lula this time because grocery prices keep climbing and "the economy is stuck."

The Irish Times reports Lula's government disapproval rating sits at 50 percent, and poor women, who delivered his 2022 win, are now the group most up for grabs.

Where the Coverage Splits

Jacobin and The Guardian frame the race as democracy versus a "reactionary bloc," with Guardian source Frei Betto warning of a "neo-fascist government" if Flávio wins. Breitbart's coverage of Lula's UN speech leaves out that Brazil traditionally speaks first at the General Assembly by protocol, not as a special platform Lula sought, and doesn't mention the corruption scandal now touching his own campaign.

Trump's tariffs and sanctions on Moraes are a real, documented intervention in a foreign election, and Lula's allies call it exactly that, interference. Jair Bolsonaro's conviction for plotting to stay in power after an election loss is also a matter of record, not a partisan talking point, according to Brookings. Both things are true at once.

No charges have been filed against Lula personally in the Vorcaro investigation, and the scope of what investigators have on either campaign remains unclear from available reporting. Brazilians vote in the first round October 4. If no candidate wins a majority, the runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro is set for October 25.