Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Trade Apologies and Insults in Final Debate Two Days Before Brazil's Runoff

Since Flávio Bolsonaro edged President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 47.03% to 45.16% in the Oct. 4 first round, the runoff has tightened into a dead heat, and the candidates' last face-to-face meeting on Friday, Oct. 23 did little to settle it.

A Datafolha poll released Thursday put both men at 50% of valid votes. Two weeks earlier, Datafolha had Bolsonaro ahead 52-48.

Three flashpoints in Rio

The two-hour debate on TV Globo in Rio de Janeiro was calmer than the Oct. 18 clash on TV Band, which dissolved into insults. It still had three tense moments.

First, Bolsonaro called Lula "nine fingers," a pejorative many of his supporters use, referring to an industrial accident Lula suffered as a metalworker. Lula demanded an apology. "I was underage and I worked at night (when the accident happened)," he said. Bolsonaro gave it: "If I offended you by calling you 'nine-fingers,' I truly apologize."

Second, Lula called Bolsonaro a vigilante, a jab at the police-linked militias that operate in poor Rio communities. Bolsonaro said he would rename those groups "narcoterrorists." Moderators gave him extra time to answer the accusation. He used it to change the subject.

Third, and the most uncomfortable, was an exchange with the mother of a 5-year-old girl killed in a shootout involving a police officer whom Bolsonaro had represented as a lawyer. Lula's campaign brought her to the studio. Bolsonaro said he did not believe his former client was guilty: "I am confident that it was not this police officer who fired that shot." The mother shouted from the stands: "She is dead."

Between the barbs, the candidates covered the minimum wage, public security, the free healthcare system and incentives for agribusiness.

Cost of living versus the Bolsonaro name

Bolsonaro's pitch is economic and security-driven. He has hit Lula on the cost of living, high interest rates, government spending and a tax reform that he says burdens working-class Brazilians. At a rally in Fortaleza on Wednesday he said he had to "debunk a lot of fake news," especially claims that he would end social welfare programs to cut spending.

Lula's pitch leans on the Bolsonaro surname. He presents himself as a defender of democracy, and his campaign is counting on opposition to the Bolsonaro family's return to power. Flávio's father, Jair Bolsonaro, is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after his 2022 loss to Lula. "Change doesn't mean depriving people of their rights," Lula has said.

Bolsonaro has said he wants Lula to "retire." Lula turns 81 soon. He has tried to close a social media gap late in the race with selfie-mode videos and, according to AFP, bought his first cell phone.

Disinformation fight and the Trump factor

Each camp accuses the other of spreading large amounts of disinformation. An online petition with more than a million signatures asked Globo to run live fact-checking of both candidates during the debate.

Political analyst Leandro Gabiati of the consultancy Dominium told AFP before the debate that Lula "is on an upward trajectory, but he has not yet landed a decisive blow to turn the tide."

President Donald Trump, Bolsonaro's most prominent foreign ally, has said little. His most notable comment was calling the first-round result "a very big victory." Last year he tied a $20 billion U.S. lifeline for Argentina to Javier Milei's party winning its midterms, and he endorsed Nasry Asfura before Honduras' presidential vote. Brazil has not gotten that treatment.

The restraint looks deliberate. Michael Shifter, a senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue, told Newsweek that open Trump support "would have been an electoral gift to Lula," because it makes it easier to run on sovereignty. Oliver Stuenkel of the Getulio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo said the White House understood that overt interference "would hurt Flavio and would benefit Lula." The Washington Post reported that Bolsonaro's team chose not to seek an endorsement when he visited the White House in May.

What Sunday decides

Both candidates were expected to bring tens of thousands of supporters into the streets of Rio and São Paulo on Saturday, Oct. 24, for their final rallies. Enthusiasm has risen sharply since the first round, when as many as 33 million eligible voters sat out, according to NPR. Lula trailed by nearly 3 million votes that day.

The winner takes over Latin America's largest economy and a population of 214 million. A Bolsonaro win would bring Brazil closer to Washington, since he is a Trump ally. A Lula win would keep distance from the U.S. Polls open Sunday, Oct. 25. With the final polling at 50-50, turnout among those first-round abstainers is the open question.