Cook Political Report Now Projects Democratic Gain of 12 to 22 House Seats, Up From 9 to 19 on Oct. 9

Since Cook Political Report moved 18 House races toward Democrats on Oct. 9, the forecaster has pushed its ratings further in the same direction, with 11 days left before the Nov. 3 election.

The newest update shifts 19 districts toward Democrats. Cook now rates 218 seats as favoring Democrats, the number needed for a majority, and 17 as toss-ups. Its most likely outcome is a Democratic gain of 12 to 22 seats, which would put the party at 227 to 237 seats. On Oct. 9 the range was nine to 19 seats, or 224 to 234.

What moved in the House

Six Republican-held seats went from Toss Up to a Democratic-leaning rating in the latest update. They include districts held by Juan Ciscomani of Arizona, Gabe Evans of Colorado, Jen Kiggans of Virginia and Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin.

Two open seats, Kentucky's 6th and Texas' 35th, moved from Republican-leaning ratings to Toss Up. In Kentucky it is Democrat Zak Dembo against Republican Ralph Alvarado. In Texas it is Democrat Johnny Garcia against Republican Carlos de la Cruz.

The Oct. 9 changes were broader. Five races moved from Toss Up to Lean Democrat: Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn in Iowa, Ryan Mackenzie and Scott Perry in Pennsylvania, and Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a Washington Democrat. Cook analyst Erin Covey wrote that three of the four Republican seats were won by less than two points in 2024. Miller-Meeks won by 0.2 percent.

Covey also wrote that a large Republican ad campaign meant to help incumbents separate themselves from President Donald Trump "has yet to move the needle." She wrote that Democrats need only 20 percent of the Toss Ups to reach a majority, assuming every Democratic-leaning seat breaks their way.

Seats once seen as safe are also moving. Reps. French Hill of Arkansas and Victoria Spartz of Indiana went from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Covey wrote that a super PAC funded by Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker plans to spend more than $1 million on TV ads for Hill's opponent, Chris Jones.

The political climate

The latest New York Times/Siena poll has Trump's approval at 36%, the lowest figure in that poll's history. A CNN poll put it at 32%.

In a Fox News column, Democratic pollster Doug Schoen and Republican strategist Andy Cooperman cite an 8-point Democratic lead on the generic ballot, one of the party's best of the cycle. At this point in 2018, they note, the lead was roughly 7 points before Democrats gained 41 House seats. Since 1934 the president's party has lost an average of 28 House seats in midterms.

The same column lays out the Republican case. Schoen and Cooperman write that Democrats "remain divided ideologically," lack "a message and an identity other than being anti-President Trump," and that Republicans have "a considerable cash advantage."

CNN reported that House Speaker Mike Johnson is asking Trump for more midterm money, and that GOP donors and lawmakers are also pleading for cash. Trump campaigned in Florida, where he urged supporters to look at their 401(k) plans before voting. Polls show voters view the economy negatively.

Senate and the money race

Democrats need a net gain of four seats for Senate control. Polling averages cited by Schoen and Cooperman show Roy Cooper ahead of Republican Michael Whatley by nearly 10 points in North Carolina. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by about 3 points. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson holds a slight edge over Sen. Susan Collins, though RealClearPolitics still rates it a toss-up.

Trump and Rogers have tried to link El-Sayed to Islamic extremism. El-Sayed told Fox's Bret Baier, "I have never been a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. I never will be," and called the focus on his faith "sad and beneath" Rogers.

On the Democratic side, the League of Conservation Voters says it is raising its 2026 spending to $110 million through affiliated groups, according to The Washington Post. That makes the climate nonprofit one of the biggest outside spenders backing Democrats this cycle.

Trump said he told the Justice Department to file a preemptive lawsuit seeking to block certification of Alaska's Senate election if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. CNN reported the suit alleges a candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan could confuse voters.

California's 48th: a Republican bright spot

Republicans have one data point of their own in California's 48th District, redrawn in the state's 2025 redistricting. With Rep. Darrell Issa retiring, the seat is open and now leans Democratic.

An Oct. 17-20 poll by The Tarrance Group, commissioned by Republican Jim Desmond's campaign, shows Democrat Marni von Wilpert ahead 47% to 44% among 410 likely voters. The margin of error is 4.9 points. It is an internal campaign poll.

Desmond's campaign says more than $7.5 million has been spent attacking him since early September. National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Christian Martinez said Democrats "can't spend enough to bury" von Wilpert's record. CalMatters has counted more than $6 million in independent expenditures in the race, nearly all supporting von Wilpert.

The next test is Nov. 3. Cook rates 17 races as Toss Ups, and its range of outcomes has moved toward Democrats in each update this month.