Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Close Campaigns With Rival Rallies as Final Poll Shows Bolsonaro Up 1.3 Points

Since Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the Oct. 4 first round, the race has tightened to a dead heat. Both candidates closed their campaigns Saturday, Oct. 24, one day before the runoff.

The last number to land was a CNT/MDA poll showing Bolsonaro with a 1.3-point lead. That is a narrow edge.

Two very different final days

Lula started in Rio de Janeiro with a march along Copacabana beach. Rio's City Hall put the crowd at about 1.1 million people. Reuters described the turnout as thousands.

He then led a second march down Paulista Avenue in São Paulo, the city's traditional venue for political demonstrations.

"We're going to win the election for one simple reason: it's true that the people want change, (but) they want to move forward. They don't want to go backward," Lula told journalists before the Rio rally.

Lula is 80 and seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. Many supporters at the rallies said they see this as his last campaign. Olga Leal, a 62-year-old retiree in São Paulo, called him "one of a kind."

Bolsonaro, 45, went to Minas Gerais instead. He joined a motorcycle caravan in the state capital, Belo Horizonte.

No candidate has won the presidency without carrying Minas Gerais since the return to democracy in the 1980s. Bolsonaro led Lula there by about 5 points in the first round.

"There are only a few hours left before we shape the future of our nation for the next 30 or 40 years," Bolsonaro said.

The comeback problem

Lula faces a historical hurdle. No first-round loser has won a runoff since Brazil's return to democracy, according to the Guardian.

Bolsonaro took the first round roughly 47% to 45%. He has pitched himself as the candidate who will fight violent crime with an iron fist. His father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, is serving a sentence of more than 27 years for plotting a coup after the 2022 election. The son has promised to seek amnesty for him.

Lula has recovered some ground in the last week. The Guardian reports that Brazilian magazine Piauí alleged Bolsonaro attended a 2020 boat party at the height of the coronavirus outbreak. According to the magazine, sex workers and vaccine lobbyists seeking a deal with his father's government were also there. The claim is Piauí's allegation. No charges or investigation tied to it have been reported.

Student-led pro-Lula street protests have also spread since the first round, according to the Guardian.

Washington in the background

The U.S. is a campaign issue. Lula has warned of foreign interference. Bolsonaro has promised to strengthen ties with the United States and Israel.

The Trump administration announced a 25% tariff on some Brazilian imports on July 15. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said talks with Lula's government failed to resolve concerns over digital trade, intellectual property, ethanol access and illegal deforestation. Beef, coffee, crude oil and aircraft parts are exempt.

Brazil said there was "no justification" for unilateral tariffs and noted that the U.S. runs a trade surplus with Brazil.

The administration has also designated Brazil's major gangs as terrorist organizations. Bolsonaro agrees. Lula rejects the designation.

A State Department spokesperson called a planned visit by Assistant Secretary Riley Barnes and Deputy Assistant Secretary Samuel Samson routine. The spokesperson called allegations of a plot to undermine the election baseless.

How the count works

Brazil votes on electronic machines that print no paper ballots. About 125 million people voted that way on Oct. 4. Results pointing to a runoff were known less than four hours after polls closed.

The country's Superior Electoral Court says there has been no proven fraud since the machines debuted in 1996. It says the 499,248 machines used in the first round never connected to the internet.

The court says party and university inspectors had access to the software for 11 months before it was signed and sealed in public. Last December, 149 outside evaluators tried to break the system. They concluded nothing they found could alter results or reveal how anyone voted.

Every machine prints a tally at closing and posts it outside the polling place with a QR code. Anyone can check it against the national count. Nearly 9 in 10 voters unlock the machines with a fingerprint.

Trump's 2025 executive order on elections cited Brazil's biometric voter ID as an example. Brazil's count still relies partly on the kind of paperless machines the president has vowed to scrap.

A result within hours of the polls closing is likely again. With a 1.3-point poll gap, the tally on Sunday night will show whether Lula pulls off a comeback no Brazilian candidate has managed.