Trump, Obama and Harris Fan Out Across Battlegrounds as Fox Poll Shows Texas Senate Race Tied at 49%

With 10 days left before the Nov. 3 midterms, the closing-week travel schedules of both parties have filled in, and they show where each side believes the map is in play.

Texas goes to a tie

A Fox News Poll released Wednesday, Oct. 21, has Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico tied at 49% among likely voters in the Texas Senate race. In September, the same poll had Talarico ahead 51% to 49%.

The survey of 1,398 likely voters ran Oct. 15-19 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 points.

Texas voters also said they prefer Republican control of the Senate, 51% to 47%. Talarico leads among Hispanic voters 64% to 34%, and nearly 3 in 10 Republicans who do not identify with the MAGA movement back him. Democrats show an enthusiasm edge: 69% said they are extremely interested in the election, against 61% of Republicans.

Obama works the Midwest and Georgia

Barack Obama has been working the Midwest as the party's closer. He campaigned in Cleveland for Senate nominee Sherrod Brown and in Detroit for Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive.

Obama also cut a video endorsing Angie Nixon, a self-described democratic socialist, in Florida's Senate race. Nixon faces GOP Sen. Ashley Moody, and the Cook Political Report rates that race "solid" Republican.

In Atlanta, Obama is scheduled to headline a rally Oct. 28 for Sen. Jon Ossoff and gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports Ossoff is the favorite over Rep. Mike Collins, while Bottoms is in a tight race with Republican billionaire Rick Jackson. Georgia's three-week early voting period ends just days after the rally.

Trump and Harris both head to Mississippi

Trump has announced a Mississippi rally for Monday, Oct. 26. He carried the state by 20 points in 2024, but Democrats see an opening because of early-vote turnout among Black voters.

NPR's Stephen Fowler described that early turnout as a huge surge. Democratic nominee Scott Colom is trying to become the first Black senator from Mississippi since Reconstruction. He is challenging incumbent Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.

Kamala Harris is campaigning for Colom this week. Her schedule, which her office shared with the Associated Press, runs from Oct. 21 to Oct. 30 and adds stops in New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Mississippi, plus a virtual event for Florida.

The travel is feeding 2028 talk. The Wall Street Journal has reported that Harris is laying groundwork for a third presidential run, and that her husband Doug Emhoff has privately said he would prefer she not run.

Harris has tied the question to this election. "I have not decided if I'm going to run again," she told an NAACP event in Michigan last month. "I do sincerely believe '28 won't matter if we don't get through '26."

Republicans ask the White House for more money

CNN reports that Republicans are pleading with the White House for more resources in competitive House races. Per that reporting, GOP campaign operatives have had to pass on some chances to flip seats so they can protect incumbents on traditionally red turf.

Florida is one place the party has tried to build a cushion in advance. In May, Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a map designed to give Republicans an edge in as many as four seats now held by Democrats. Lawmakers approved it hours after the U.S. Supreme Court limited the reach of the Voting Rights Act in redistricting cases.

Voter-roll lawsuit adds a legal front

On Tuesday, Oct. 20, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries joined other congressional Democrats in suing the Trump administration in federal court in Washington, D.C.

The complaint alleges the Department of Homeland Security pressured states to review unreliable lists of suspected noncitizens. It also alleges federal officials threatened state and local election administrators to win compliance. The plaintiffs argue that federal law leaves decisions about who stays registered, and whose ballots count, to the states.

"Trump knows he can't win a fair fight, so he's resorted to bullying election officials into stripping Americans of their right to vote," Schumer wrote on X.

The Trump administration has defended its election integrity efforts as lawful measures to prevent noncitizen voting. The allegations in the complaint are unproven, and the court has not ruled.

Minnesota governor's race

In Minnesota, Democrat Amy Klobuchar and Republican Lisa Demuth held a second debate this week in the governor's race. Both pledged not to raise taxes.

They clashed over the state's fraud scandal. Klobuchar said she would have caught the fraud. Demuth vowed to fire state commissioners she says failed to prevent it.

Trump is due in Mississippi on Monday, Oct. 26. Obama follows in Atlanta on Wednesday, Oct. 28, and Harris's schedule runs through Oct. 30. The Texas Senate race, tied in Fox's latest poll, will not be settled until polls close on Nov. 3.