Jobless Claims Fall to 189,000, Matching a 57-Year Low, as October Jobs Report Arrives Friday

Since mid-September, claims have stayed mostly below 200,000, and the Labor Department's report today, Nov. 5, put them right back at 189,000, the level reached in mid-July, which was the lowest reading since 1969.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 189,000 for the week ended Oct. 31. The prior week was revised up to 195,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 196,000.

The four-week average, which smooths out the weekly noise, dipped to 194,750. That is down from 225,500 a year ago, a 13.6% drop, according to Breitbart's tally of the Labor Department series.

Layoffs stay scarce

Claims have not topped 230,000 in any single week this year. Per the Associated Press, they have been at or below 200,000 for eight straight weeks.

Continuing claims, the count of people still collecting benefits after an initial week, rose 23,000 to 1.718 million in the week ended Oct. 24. That is still 244,000 fewer than a year earlier, and the share of covered workers collecting benefits slipped from 1.3% to 1.1%.

The outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas reported 43,994 announced job cuts in October. That is up 2% from September but down 71% from October 2025, and the lowest October total since 2023.

The same firm counted 444,692 planned hires last month, up 57% from a year earlier and the highest October figure since 2009.

"Employers are holding on to the workers they have heading into the holidays, and the hiring they are announcing is largely short-term, seasonal work," said Andy Challenger, the firm's chief revenue officer. "Companies want the flexibility to meet holiday demand without adding permanent headcount."

Low firing, modest hiring

The low claims number does not mean a hot job market. Employers have added an average of 68,000 jobs a month this year, including 29,000 in September, according to the AP. That compares with a monthly average of 9,700 in 2025.

The unemployed are also having a harder time landing work. Challenger's reading of the hiring surge is that permanent headcount is not being added, which Reuters noted means some jobless people face long stretches without work.

There is a dispute over what the claims number says. Some economists cited by Reuters view the low level as a product of a smaller labor force amid the immigration crackdown rather than fewer job cuts. Others in the same account believe the labor market may be tightening. Government data this week showed 1.06 open jobs for every unemployed person in September, up from 1.02 in August.

The Labor Department's claims report does not settle that argument. It counts applications for benefits, not the size of the workforce.

Productivity jumps

The Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported that nonfarm productivity grew at a 3.6% annualized rate in the third quarter, after an upwardly revised 2.1% in the second quarter. The gain pushed labor costs down for the first time in more than a year.

Reuters said the data reinforced the view among policymakers and economists that the labor market is not driving inflation. That gives the Federal Reserve more room to focus on price pressures tied to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, now in its ninth month.

Stephen Stanley pushed back on crediting artificial intelligence for the gain. "AI has yet to make a noticeable contribution. Productivity gains have been fairly consistent over the past several years," he said.

The AP, by contrast, wrote that a surge in AI investment has lifted overall economic growth. Investment spending and productivity are different measurements, and the two accounts are not necessarily in conflict.

Context for the number

Breitbart's analysis of the Labor Department series, which begins in 1967, found that the year-to-date average of 208,068 initial claims per week through Oct. 31 is the lowest since 1969. Only 1968 and 1969 had fewer claims over the same 44-week stretch.

That compares with a 2019 average of 217,712, and a low of 196,000 in the best single week of that year.

Employers are also cautious. Trading Economics pointed to uncertainty over the Iran war, elevated energy costs, Fed policy and trade policy as reasons businesses are wary of changing staffing levels.

The next test comes Friday, Nov. 6, when the Labor Department releases October hiring numbers. Forecasters surveyed by FactSet expect 65,000 jobs added and unemployment holding at 4.2%. The Chicago Fed is projecting a jobless rate of 4.14%.