Israeli Officers and a Fired Defense Minister Say Gaza and Lebanon Strategy Has No Clear Endgame

Two of Israel's own military and political veterans are now saying, publicly, that nobody has a real plan to win.

Retired Brig.-Gen. Oren Avman, a former commander of the Kfir Brigade, told Israeli radio station 103FM that the diplomatic tracks with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon are "largely ineffective... half-baked in terms of what we will actually achieve," according to the Jerusalem Post. Avman said he doesn't know "if we're being played or if a false reality is being manufactured," adding that Israel is "pretending to run a process that will ultimately disarm Hamas."

Avman was reacting to a report that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu allowed former Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar to maintain direct contact with Hamas officials during the war. That claim comes from a separate report cited in the interview and has not been independently confirmed here. On Lebanon, Avman was blunter: the IDF is in a "Home Alone 2" situation. It's "full of holes like Swiss cheese, operating without a clear political compass while locked in localized battles of attrition" against Hezbollah.

He wasn't calling for Israel to walk away from the table. "When saving human lives is on the line... it is legitimate to negotiate even with the devil," Avman said, drawing a line between hostage-recovery diplomacy, which he backs without reservation, and the broader political negotiations he thinks lack direction.

Gallant vs. Katz

Former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, whom Netanyahu fired on Nov. 5, 2024 over disputes about ceasefire strategy, went further. Gallant told Israeli radio station 103FM that Israel is in "the worst possible situation" in Gaza, according to Al-Monitor: half the territory in Israeli hands, half still run by Hamas, and Hamas "growing stronger and now raising its head again."

Gallant's comments followed a string of kite incidents near the Gaza border. Four kites were intercepted near Kibbutz Nir Oz on Saturday and a fifth on Sunday, none carrying explosives, but Al-Monitor reported the Israeli military fears Hamas is testing the ground for a repeat of the tactic it used before Oct. 7, 2023, when explosive-laden kites and balloons set southern Israeli farmland on fire.

Current Defense Minister Israel Katz fired back at Gallant directly, saying he would not repeat "the policies of the evening of Oct. 7... neither from the air nor by allowing anyone to approach the fences." Katz credited his own approach, a cleared security zone with troops controlling the ground, as the fix for what he called Gallant's pattern of "repetitive raids" that let Hamas keep returning to the same locations. Both men are describing the same battlefield and reaching opposite conclusions about who is responsible for the current stalemate; neither claim is independently verified beyond their own statements.

The Lebanon front, and the Vatican

Israel has occupied territory in southern Lebanon since it moved against Hezbollah following the U.S. military campaign against Iran launched in February, known as Operation Epic Fury, according to Breitbart. Hundreds of thousands of people, including residents of Christian villages, have been displaced. Netanyahu has said repeatedly he won't withdraw the IDF until Hezbollah is eliminated as a threat, while Lebanese officials accuse Israel of violating a June framework agreement by bombing residential areas Israel says Hezbollah is using to stage attacks.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun raised those concerns directly with Pope Leo XIV and Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin during a visit to the Holy See. The Vatican said in a statement that while it welcomed the signing of the Trilateral Framework Agreement between the U.S., Israel and Lebanon, it has "serious concerns about the difficulties that are being encountered in implementing it." Talks between Lebanon and Israel are set to resume in Rome in September.

Prediction markets tracked by Vera, cited by Crypto Briefing, are pricing in reduced odds of a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon by the September 30 target and are watching a December 31 deadline as the next checkpoint.

The Iran backdrop

All of this sits inside a wider, unresolved U.S.-Iran standoff. A 60-day memorandum of understanding Trump signed with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in June expired in mid-August without a deal, according to CNN. Trump said he's in no rush and claimed his administration has opened a direct backchannel with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a claim the IRGC has denied.

Jared Kushner spent more than four hours with Netanyahu pressing the U.S.-backed Gaza ceasefire plan, per CNN, and said afterward that Hamas could disarm soon, but that Washington would back further Israeli military action if it doesn't.

Separately, Trump on Truth Social praised a new defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, calling it a step toward Middle East countries defending themselves. Navy SEAL veteran Mike Sarraille told Fox News the pact, plus a 14-nation Red Sea maritime security coalition, represents "the biggest strategic miscalculation by Iran," arguing Tehran has isolated itself across the region even as tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz kept oil prices elevated, with Brent crude near $88.72 a barrel.

None of that resolves the question Avman and Gallant are actually asking: what does winning look like, and does anyone currently running the process know the answer. The next test comes in September, when Lebanon and Israel are due back at the table in Rome.