India's Exports to China Jump 39% Even as Congress Hands Trump Tariff Leverage Over Russian Oil Buyers

India's trade relationship with China is deepening at the exact moment Washington is threatening to punish New Delhi for its other big trading relationship: Russia.

According to the Commerce Ministry data reported by The Hindu, India's exports to the four core BRICS economies, Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa, jumped 34% to $19.9 billion in April-August of fiscal year 2026-27, up from $14.9 billion in the same period a year earlier. China drove most of that growth, with exports rising 39%. The Hindu put the China figure at $9.6 billion; LiveMint, citing the same PTI wire report, listed it at $9.8 billion. Either way, China is now the single largest driver of India's BRICS export growth, according to a commerce ministry official cited by both outlets.

South Africa posted the fastest growth rate, up 58%, while Brazil and Russia grew 13% and 11% respectively. India's exports to Japan also surged 43% to $3.43 billion, led by a 76% jump in mineral fuel shipments. Italy rose 30% to $3.92 billion and South Korea grew 22% to $3.21 billion.

The Xi-Modi Meeting Behind the Numbers

The export data lands against the backdrop of the 18th BRICS summit, held September 12-13 in New Delhi, according to Fox News. Xi Jinping made his first trip to India in seven years for the summit, marking what Fox News described as the biggest step yet in a cautious thaw following the deadly 2020 border clash between Indian and Chinese troops in the Himalayas. Vladimir Putin also visited, his first trip to India since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian attended while Tehran seeks membership in the BRICS New Development Bank.

At their bilateral meeting, Modi and Xi "underlined the need to address the concerns of the two countries on the structural trade imbalance and supply chain issues, and facilitation of meaningful and predictable market access," according to a statement from India's Ministry of External Affairs, cited by Social News XYZ. Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal told reporters on September 15 that both countries are "working to address trade concerns," including the structural deficit and supply-chain friction, and that engineering goods, electronics, petroleum products, and chemicals remain India's key exports to China.

That imbalance is still steep. India imports far more from China than it sends the other way, and New Delhi has pushed for years for greater market access for Indian goods.

China's Export Machine Keeps Running

While India's exports to China are climbing, China's overall export machine is running hotter than almost anyone predicted. Chinese customs data show exports rose 25% year-over-year in August, pushing the cumulative trade surplus for the first eight months of 2026 above $805.51 billion, according to Epoch Times. Exports to the United States alone rose 34.4% in August, despite existing U.S. tariffs.

Davy Jun Huang, a U.S.-based economist and former columnist for Chinese state broadcaster CNTV, told Epoch Times that tariffs haven't shrunk China's export volume so much as raised the cost of maintaining it, pushing Chinese firms to lengthen supply chains through Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East to dodge duties. Sun Kuo-hsiang, a professor at Taiwan's Nanhua University, told the outlet that in the long run this could produce supply chains that look "de-Chinafied" on paper while still depending heavily on Chinese components. Neither economist's claims have been independently verified beyond their own analysis, but the underlying customs figures are official Chinese government data.

Congress Raises the Stakes on Russian Oil

Congress passed a sweeping Russia sanctions package in the same month, clearing the House 262-159 and the Senate 86-11, according to Breitbart. President Trump has said he will sign it. The bill targets Russia's energy and defense sectors and gives Trump authority to impose tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian oil and gas, a category that includes both China and India.

The bill split Democrats. Representative Gregory Meeks, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, called it "deeply flawed," arguing that White House lawyers wrote the tariff language to maximize Trump's import-tax authority over Americans while minimizing any actual obligation to sanction Russia or its enablers. He said he'd support the bill if the secondary tariff provisions were stripped out; Republicans rejected that amendment. Dozens of Democrats voted for it anyway, while a handful of Republicans opposed it on free-market or non-interventionist grounds. Supporters say tougher pressure is needed given Russia's continued attacks on Ukraine, while Meeks's objection is about handing the executive branch broad tariff power with no guaranteed sanctions payoff.

India's response, per Breitbart, was blunt. New Delhi said Thursday it would keep buying Russian oil "through diversified sourcing and on the basis of evolving market dynamics." Moscow remains one of India's most important military suppliers.

India is simultaneously deepening trade with China, hosting Xi and Putin for a friendly summit, and telling Washington it won't stop buying Russian crude, all while Congress just gave Trump a 100% tariff hammer he could swing at New Delhi any time he chooses. Whether Trump actually uses that authority against India, a country he's also courting on trade, remains unanswered in Washington and New Delhi.